bayesRatings

Avalanche at Wild

NHL · Friday, Nov 28 · 2:30 PM CT · Grand Casino Arena · Final COL 2 – MIN 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
COL101002
MIN020013
Team box
COL·MIN
41
shots
39
0 of 1
power play
0 of 1
59.6
faceoff %
40.4
12
hits
25
12
blocked shots
17
2
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Scott WedgewoodCOL3937.949
Jesper WallstedtMIN4139.951

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
COL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: MIN 1 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 58%, MIN 42% · Updated Nov 28, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 0.8
Expected score
COL 3.2 – 2.4 MIN
Expected total
5.6
AvalancheThe matchupWild
−141Our fair odds+141
3.2Expected goals2.4
+0.59Power rating+0.01
4.1Goals / game3.0
2.2Allowed / game2.8
33.5Shots / game27.7
49.0Faceoff %47.7
18.4Hits / game22.4
17−6Season record13−11
10−0Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · MIN chance
Our model fair58.5%41.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−14158%————
MINMinnesota Wild+14142%————
SpreadCOL by 0.8
COLColorado Avalanche−0.8our margin————
MINMinnesota Wild+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 0.8 expected
Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 3%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 9%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 18%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 24%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 7%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 6%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 2%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 1%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%
← COL wins byMIN wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more42%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more29%
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more16%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,071 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .954 save %, 1.20 GAAstarted
MINJesper Wallstedt G · last 5 starts: .970 save %, 0.99 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·MIN
Nov 26, 2025 vs SJ
last game
Nov 26, 2025 at CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 23+ games
COL·MIN
+0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.1
goals / game
3.0
2.2
goals allowed / game
2.8
17−6
season record
13−11
9−2
home record
7−6
8−4
away record
6−5
W10
streak
W6
10−0
last 10
8−2
33.5
shots / game
27.7
49.0
faceoff %
47.7
18.4
hits / game
22.4
14.3
blocked shots / game
15.0
4.7
takeaways / game
4.3
15.3
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

COL · MIN · 45 days
Colorado AvalancheMinnesota Wild
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 3−7
Mar 11, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 1 SO
Feb 28, 2025at COLCOL 5 − 2
Jan 20, 2025at COLMIN 3 − 1
Jan 9, 2025at MINCOL 6 − 1
Apr 9, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at MINCOL 5 − 2
Mar 8, 2024at COLCOL 2 − 1 OT
Nov 24, 2023at MINCOL 3 − 2
Mar 29, 2023at COLMIN 4 − 2
Feb 15, 2023at MINCOL 3 − 2

COL · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Nov 26, 2025vs SJ6 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at CHI1 − 0W
Nov 22, 2025at NSH3 − 0W
Nov 20, 2025vs NYR6 − 3W
Nov 16, 2025vs NYI4 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025vs BUF6 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs ANA4 − 1W
Nov 9, 2025at VAN5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025at EDM9 − 1W
Nov 4, 2025vs TB3 − 2W

MIN · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Nov 26, 2025at CHI4 − 3W
Nov 23, 2025at WPG3 − 0W
Nov 21, 2025at PIT5 − 0W
Nov 19, 2025vs CAR4 − 3W
Nov 16, 2025vs VGK3 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025vs ANA2 − 0W
Nov 11, 2025vs SJ1 − 2L
Nov 9, 2025vs CGY2 − 0W
Nov 7, 2025at NYI5 − 2W
Nov 6, 2025at CAR3 − 4L