bayesRatings

Rangers at Bruins

NHL · Friday, Nov 28 · 12:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final NYR 6 – BOS 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYR2226
BOS0022
Team box
NYR·BOS
37
shots
21
2 of 3
power play
0 of 2
55.4
faceoff %
44.6
34
hits
25
16
blocked shots
9
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Igor ShesterkinNYR2119.905
Joonas KorpisaloBOS3631.861

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
NYR +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: BOS 0 · NYR 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYR 47%, BOS 53% · Updated Nov 28, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYR 3.0 – 3.0 BOS
Expected total
6.0
RangersThe matchupBruins
+115Our fair odds−115
3.0Expected goals3.0
+0.00Power rating−0.09
2.6Goals / game3.1
2.6Allowed / game3.1
26.0Shots / game27.2
53.3Faceoff %52.3
25.7Hits / game25.2
12−13Season record14−11
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYR chance · BOS chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYRNew York Rangers+11547%————
BOSBoston Bruins−11553%————
Spreadabout even
NYRNew York Rangers−0.1our margin————
BOSBoston Bruins+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 2%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 6%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 10%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 17%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 26%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 9%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 5%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%
← NYR wins byBOS wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more31%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more21%
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 2.39 GAAstarted
BOSJoonas Korpisalo G · last 5 starts: .901 save %, 2.96 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYR·BOS
Nov 26, 2025 at CAR
last game
Nov 26, 2025 at NYI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
NYR·BOS
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
2.6
goals / game
3.1
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.1
12−13
season record
14−11
2−8
home record
8−4
10−5
away record
6−7
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
26.0
shots / game
27.2
53.3
faceoff %
52.3
25.7
hits / game
25.2
15.0
blocked shots / game
16.6
5.0
takeaways / game
4.5
14.1
giveaways / game
16.0

Rating Trend

NYR · BOS · 45 days
New York RangersBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 5−5
Feb 5, 2025at NYRNYR 3 − 2
Feb 1, 2025at BOSBOS 6 − 3
Jan 2, 2025at NYRNYR 2 − 1
Mar 21, 2024at BOSNYR 5 − 2
Dec 16, 2023at BOSNYR 2 − 1 OT
Nov 25, 2023at NYRNYR 7 − 4
Mar 4, 2023at BOSBOS 4 − 2
Jan 19, 2023at NYRBOS 3 − 1
Nov 3, 2022at NYRBOS 5 − 2
Apr 23, 2022at BOSBOS 3 − 1

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Nov 26, 2025at CAR4 − 2W
Nov 24, 2025vs STL3 − 2W
Nov 22, 2025at UTAH2 − 3L
Nov 20, 2025at COL3 − 6L
Nov 18, 2025at VGK2 − 3L
Nov 16, 2025vs DET1 − 2L
Nov 15, 2025at CBJ2 − 1W
Nov 12, 2025at TB7 − 3W
Nov 10, 2025vs NSH6 − 3W
Nov 8, 2025vs NYI0 − 5L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 26, 2025at NYI3 − 1W
Nov 23, 2025at SJ1 − 3L
Nov 21, 2025at LA2 − 1W
Nov 19, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Nov 17, 2025vs CAR1 − 3L
Nov 15, 2025at MTL3 − 2W
Nov 13, 2025at OTT3 − 5L
Nov 11, 2025vs TOR5 − 3W
Nov 8, 2025at TOR5 − 3W
Nov 6, 2025vs OTT3 − 2W