bayesRatings

Canucks at Rangers

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 16 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final VAN 3 – NYR 0
← NHL / Dec 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
VAN1113
NYR0000
Team box
VAN·NYR
17
shots
23
0 of 3
power play
0 of 4
46.8
faceoff %
53.2
20
hits
26
13
blocked shots
6
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Conor GarlandVAN103
Evander KaneVAN102
Liam OhgrenVAN102
Filip HronekVAN012
Brock BoeserVAN011
Linus KarlssonVAN010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Thatcher DemkoVAN23231.000
Jonathan QuickNYR1614.875

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 0 · VAN 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 42%, NYR 58% · Updated Dec 16, 2025

Expected margin
NYR by 0.5
Expected score
NYR 3.1 – 2.6 VAN
Expected total
5.7
CanucksThe matchupRangers
+139Our fair odds−139
2.6Expected goals3.1
−0.17Power rating−0.00
2.8Goals / game2.6
3.5Allowed / game2.7
26.8Shots / game26.4
48.5Faceoff %54.4
21.3Hits / game26.5
12−20Season record16−18
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · NYR chance
Our model fair41.8%58.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+13942%————
NYRNew York Rangers−13958%————
SpreadNYR by 0.5
VANVancouver Canucks+0.5our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Rangers by 0.5 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 21%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 23%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 14%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 6 goals: <1%
← VAN wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more35%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more24%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANThatcher Demko G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 2.61 GAAstarted
NYRJonathan Quick G · last 5 starts: .944 save %, 1.79 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·NYR
Dec 14, 2025 at NJ
last game
Dec 15, 2025 vs ANA
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
VAN·NYR
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
2.8
goals / game
2.6
3.5
goals allowed / game
2.7
12−20
season record
16−18
4−11
home record
4−12
8−9
away record
12−6
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
26.8
shots / game
26.4
48.5
faceoff %
54.4
21.3
hits / game
26.5
14.6
blocked shots / game
15.2
4.2
takeaways / game
4.4
14.7
giveaways / game
14.4

Rating Trend

VAN · NYR · 63 days
Vancouver CanucksNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NYR 6−3
Oct 28, 2025at VANNYR 2 − 0
Mar 22, 2025at NYRNYR 5 − 3
Nov 19, 2024at VANNYR 4 − 3
Jan 8, 2024at NYRVAN 6 − 3
Oct 28, 2023at VANNYR 4 − 3 OT
Feb 15, 2023at VANNYR 6 − 4
Feb 8, 2023at NYRNYR 4 − 3
Feb 27, 2022at NYRVAN 5 − 2
Nov 2, 2021at VANVAN 3 − 2 OT

VAN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 14, 2025at NJ2 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025vs DET0 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs MIN4 − 2W
Dec 5, 2025vs UTAH1 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at COL1 − 3L
Nov 29, 2025at LA1 − 2L
Nov 28, 2025at SJ2 − 3L
Nov 26, 2025at ANA5 − 4W
Nov 23, 2025vs CGY2 − 5L

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 15, 2025vs ANA1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 10, 2025at CHI0 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 6, 2025vs COL2 − 3L
Dec 4, 2025at OTT4 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025vs DAL3 − 2W
Nov 29, 2025vs TB1 − 4L
Nov 28, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Nov 26, 2025at CAR4 − 2W