bayesRatings

Ducks at Rangers

NHL · Monday, Dec 15 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final ANA 4 – NYR 1
← NHL / Dec 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA0134
NYR0101
Team box
ANA·NYR
26
shots
27
1 of 3
power play
0 of 4
31.3
faceoff %
68.8
25
hits
20
14
blocked shots
12
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Cutter GauthierANA205
Ryan PoehlingANA021
Jackson LaCombeANA105
Pavel MintyukovANA101
Matthew RobertsonNYR101
Artemi PanarinNYR015
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA2726.963
Igor ShesterkinNYR2522.880

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYR 0 · ANA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 43%, NYR 57% · Updated Dec 15, 2025

Expected margin
NYR by 0.5
Expected score
NYR 3.2 – 2.8 ANA
Expected total
6.0
DucksThe matchupRangers
+133Our fair odds−133
2.8Expected goals3.2
−0.07Power rating+0.04
3.6Goals / game2.7
3.3Allowed / game2.7
31.1Shots / game26.3
46.2Faceoff %53.9
20.2Hits / game26.7
19−13Season record16−17
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · NYR chance
Our model fair42.9%57.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+13343%————
NYRNew York Rangers−13357%————
SpreadNYR by 0.5
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.5our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Rangers by 0.5 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 21%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 21%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 11%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 14%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 7%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 6 goals: 1%
← ANA wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more36%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more25%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .887 save %, 3.19 GAAstarted
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .899 save %, 2.76 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·NYR
Dec 13, 2025 at NJ
last game
Dec 13, 2025 vs MTL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
ANA·NYR
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
3.6
goals / game
2.7
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.7
19−13
season record
16−17
11−4
home record
4−11
8−9
away record
12−6
L2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
6−4
31.1
shots / game
26.3
46.2
faceoff %
53.9
20.2
hits / game
26.7
14.9
blocked shots / game
15.3
4.8
takeaways / game
4.5
15.1
giveaways / game
14.5

Rating Trend

ANA · NYR · 62 days
Anaheim DucksNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NYR 6−2
Mar 28, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 4 OT
Oct 26, 2024at NYRNYR 2 − 1
Jan 21, 2024at ANANYR 5 − 2
Dec 15, 2023at NYRNYR 5 − 1
Nov 23, 2022at ANAANA 3 − 2
Oct 17, 2022at NYRNYR 6 − 4
Mar 15, 2022at NYRNYR 4 − 3 OT
Jan 8, 2022at ANANYR 4 − 1

ANA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 13, 2025at NJ1 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025at NYI2 − 5L
Dec 9, 2025at PIT4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI7 − 1W
Dec 5, 2025vs WSH4 − 3W
Dec 3, 2025vs UTAH0 − 7L
Dec 1, 2025at STL4 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025at CHI3 − 5L
Nov 28, 2025vs LA5 − 4W
Nov 26, 2025vs VAN4 − 5L

NYR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 13, 2025vs MTL5 − 4W
Dec 10, 2025at CHI0 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 6, 2025vs COL2 − 3L
Dec 4, 2025at OTT4 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025vs DAL3 − 2W
Nov 29, 2025vs TB1 − 4L
Nov 28, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Nov 26, 2025at CAR4 − 2W
Nov 24, 2025vs STL3 − 2W