bayesRatings

Canadiens at Rangers

NHL · Saturday, Dec 13 · 6:00 PM CT · Madison Square Garden · Final MTL 4 – NYR 5
← NHL / Dec 13, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
MTL31004
NYR22015
Team box
MTL·NYR
18
shots
29
0 of 1
power play
2 of 2
46.9
faceoff %
53.1
21
hits
32
23
blocked shots
18
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
J.T. MillerNYR203
Noah LabaNYR112
Will CuylleNYR111
Matthew RobertsonNYR023
Nick SuzukiMTL021
Lane HutsonMTL020
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob FowlerMTL2924.828
Igor ShesterkinNYR1814.778

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYR +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: NYR 1 · MTL 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 42%, NYR 58% · Updated Dec 13, 2025

Expected margin
NYR by 0.6
Expected score
NYR 3.2 – 2.7 MTL
Expected total
5.9
CanadiensThe matchupRangers
+136Our fair odds−136
2.7Expected goals3.2
−0.09Power rating+0.04
3.2Goals / game2.6
3.6Allowed / game2.6
25.5Shots / game26.2
50.0Faceoff %53.9
21.3Hits / game26.5
16−14Season record15−17
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · NYR chance
Our model fair42.4%57.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+13642%————
NYRNew York Rangers−13658%————
SpreadNYR by 0.6
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.6our margin————
NYRNew York Rangers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Rangers by 0.6 expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 3%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 22%New York Rangers by 1 goal: 20%New York Rangers by 2 goals: 12%New York Rangers by 3 goals: 15%New York Rangers by 4 goals: 8%New York Rangers by 5 goals: 3%New York Rangers by 6 goals: 1%
← MTL wins byNYR wins by →
New York Rangers wins by 2 or more38%
New York Rangers wins by 3 or more26%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJacob Fowler G · last 1 start: .947 save %, 2.01 GAAstarted
NYRIgor Shesterkin G · last 5 starts: .916 save %, 2.60 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·NYR
Dec 11, 2025 at PIT
last game
Dec 10, 2025 at CHI
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
MTL·NYR
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
3.2
goals / game
2.6
3.6
goals allowed / game
2.6
16−14
season record
15−17
7−9
home record
3−11
9−5
away record
12−6
W1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
5−5
25.5
shots / game
26.2
50.0
faceoff %
53.9
21.3
hits / game
26.5
16.7
blocked shots / game
15.2
4.2
takeaways / game
4.5
13.8
giveaways / game
14.5

Rating Trend

MTL · NYR · 60 days
Montreal CanadiensNew York Rangers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYR 7−3
Oct 18, 2025at MTLNYR 4 − 3
Jan 19, 2025at MTLMTL 5 − 4 OT
Nov 30, 2024at NYRNYR 4 − 3
Oct 22, 2024at MTLNYR 7 − 2
Apr 7, 2024at NYRNYR 5 − 2
Feb 15, 2024at NYRNYR 7 − 4
Jan 6, 2024at MTLMTL 4 − 3 SO
Mar 9, 2023at MTLNYR 4 − 3 SO
Jan 15, 2023at NYRMTL 2 − 1
Jan 5, 2023at MTLNYR 4 − 1

MTL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 11, 2025at PIT4 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs TB1 − 6L
Dec 7, 2025vs STL3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at TOR2 − 1W
Dec 3, 2025vs WPG3 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025vs OTT2 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025at COL2 − 7L
Nov 28, 2025at VGK4 − 1W
Nov 26, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W
Nov 22, 2025vs TOR5 − 2W

NYR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Dec 10, 2025at CHI0 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 6, 2025vs COL2 − 3L
Dec 4, 2025at OTT4 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025vs DAL3 − 2W
Nov 29, 2025vs TB1 − 4L
Nov 28, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Nov 26, 2025at CAR4 − 2W
Nov 24, 2025vs STL3 − 2W
Nov 22, 2025at UTAH2 − 3L