bayesRatings

Lightning at Canadiens

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 9 · 6:00 PM CT · Bell Centre · Final TB 6 – MTL 1
← NHL / Dec 9, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TB3126
MTL0101
Team box
TB·MTL
27
shots
27
1 of 3
power play
1 of 4
30.2
faceoff %
69.8
27
hits
24
16
blocked shots
18
17
penalty minutes
15
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Darren RaddyshTB203
Nikita KucherovTB112
Brayden PointTB112
Charle-Edouard D'AstousTB105
Oliver KapanenMTL103
Pontus HolmbergTB102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jonas JohanssonTB2726.963
Jakub DobesMTL1411.786
Sam MontembeaultMTL1310.769

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MTL +5
TB +5
P1P2P3
largest lead: MTL 0 · TB 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 53%, MTL 47% · Updated Dec 9, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 3.6 – 3.1 MTL
Expected total
6.7
LightningThe matchupCanadiens
−111Our fair odds+111
3.6Expected goals3.1
+0.20Power rating−0.09
3.0Goals / game3.3
2.6Allowed / game3.5
27.4Shots / game25.3
46.1Faceoff %49.6
19.0Hits / game21.5
16−13Season record15−13
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MTL chance
Our model fair52.6%47.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−11153%————
MTLMontreal Canadiens+11147%————
SpreadTB by 0.5
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.5our margin————
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.5 expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 8%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 14%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 16%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 24%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 8%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 4%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 1%Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 7 goals: <1%
← TB wins byMTL wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more38%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more27%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBJonas Johansson G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.05 GAAstarted
MTLSam Montembeault G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 3.03 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MTL
Dec 8, 2025 at TOR
last game
Dec 7, 2025 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
TB·MTL
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
3.0
goals / game
3.3
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.5
16−13
season record
15−13
8−7
home record
7−8
8−6
away record
8−5
L4
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
5−5
27.4
shots / game
25.3
46.1
faceoff %
49.6
19.0
hits / game
21.5
13.2
blocked shots / game
16.4
4.2
takeaways / game
4.3
15.7
giveaways / game
13.9

Rating Trend

TB · MTL · 56 days
Tampa Bay LightningMontreal Canadiens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MTL 3−7
Feb 9, 2025at MTLTB 5 − 3
Jan 21, 2025at MTLMTL 3 − 2
Dec 29, 2024at TBMTL 5 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at MTLTB 7 − 4
Mar 2, 2024at TBTB 4 − 3 SO
Dec 31, 2023at TBTB 4 − 3
Nov 7, 2023at MTLTB 5 − 3
Mar 21, 2023at MTLMTL 3 − 2
Mar 18, 2023at TBTB 5 − 3
Dec 28, 2022at TBTB 4 − 1

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L4
Dec 8, 2025at TOR0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025vs NYI0 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at NYI1 − 2L
Nov 29, 2025at NYR4 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025at DET6 − 3W
Nov 26, 2025vs CGY5 − 1W
Nov 24, 2025vs PHI3 − 0W
Nov 22, 2025at WSH5 − 3W
Nov 20, 2025vs EDM2 − 1W

MTL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 7, 2025vs STL3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at TOR2 − 1W
Dec 3, 2025vs WPG3 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025vs OTT2 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025at COL2 − 7L
Nov 28, 2025at VGK4 − 1W
Nov 26, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W
Nov 22, 2025vs TOR5 − 2W
Nov 20, 2025vs WSH4 − 8L
Nov 17, 2025at CBJ3 − 4L