bayesRatings

Oilers at Lightning

NHL · Thursday, Nov 20 · 6:30 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final EDM 1 – TB 2
← NHL / Nov 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
EDM10001
TB00112
Team box
EDM·TB
25
shots
35
0 of 2
power play
0 of 3
57.4
faceoff %
42.6
17
hits
29
10
blocked shots
19
21
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jake GuentzelTB104
Nick PaulTB103
Trent FredericEDM101
Nikita KucherovTB016
Darren RaddyshTB014
Emil LillebergTB012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Calvin PickardEDM3533.943
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2524.960

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
EDM +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: TB 1 · EDM 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was EDM 43%, TB 57% · Updated Nov 20, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 0.7
Expected score
TB 3.6 – 2.9 EDM
Expected total
6.4
OilersThe matchupLightning
+132Our fair odds−132
2.9Expected goals3.6
+0.10Power rating+0.14
3.0Goals / game3.1
3.7Allowed / game2.9
28.5Shots / game26.8
53.0Faceoff %44.8
17.2Hits / game19.9
9−13Season record10−9
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
EDM chance · TB chance
Our model fair43.1%56.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
EDMEdmonton Oilers+13243%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−13257%————
SpreadTB by 0.7
EDMEdmonton Oilers+0.7our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.7 expected
Edmonton Oilers by 7 goals: <1%Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: <1%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 1%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 3%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 7%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 7%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 23%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 15%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 9%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 4%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%
← EDM wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more41%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more29%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
EDMCalvin Pickard G · last 5 starts: .820 save %, 4.89 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.58 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
EDM·TB
Nov 19, 2025 at WSH
last game
Nov 18, 2025 vs NJ
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 19+ games
EDM·TB
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.14
3.0
goals / game
3.1
3.7
goals allowed / game
2.9
9−13
season record
10−9
5−3
home record
5−5
4−10
away record
5−4
L2
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
7−3
28.5
shots / game
26.8
53.0
faceoff %
44.8
17.2
hits / game
19.9
15.1
blocked shots / game
13.8
4.5
takeaways / game
4.0
16.2
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

EDM · TB · 38 days
Edmonton OilersTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TB 4−4
Feb 25, 2025at TBTB 4 − 1
Dec 10, 2024at EDMEDM 2 − 1
Dec 14, 2023at EDMTB 7 − 4
Nov 18, 2023at TBTB 6 − 4
Jan 19, 2023at EDMEDM 5 − 3
Nov 8, 2022at TBEDM 3 − 2
Mar 12, 2022at EDMEDM 4 − 1
Feb 23, 2022at TBTB 5 − 3

EDM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Nov 19, 2025at WSH4 − 7L
Nov 17, 2025at BUF1 − 5L
Nov 15, 2025at CAR4 − 3W
Nov 13, 2025at CBJ4 − 5L
Nov 12, 2025at PHI2 − 1W
Nov 10, 2025vs CBJ5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025vs COL1 − 9L
Nov 4, 2025at DAL3 − 4L
Nov 3, 2025at STL2 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 18, 2025vs NJ5 − 1W
Nov 16, 2025vs VAN2 − 6L
Nov 15, 2025at FLA3 − 1W
Nov 12, 2025vs NYR3 − 7L
Nov 8, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Nov 6, 2025at VGK6 − 3W
Nov 4, 2025at COL2 − 3L
Nov 2, 2025at UTAH4 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025vs DAL2 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025at NSH5 − 2W