bayesRatings

Canadiens at Blue Jackets

NHL · Monday, Nov 17 · 6:30 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final MTL 3 – CBJ 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
MTL012003
CBJ120014
Team box
MTL·CBJ
32
shots
23
0 of 0
power play
1 of 2
59.6
faceoff %
40.4
17
hits
15
13
blocked shots
12
4
penalty minutes
0
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jakub DobesMTL2320.870
Jet GreavesCBJ3229.906

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
MTL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: CBJ 2 · MTL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MTL 46%, CBJ 54% · Updated Nov 17, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.5 – 3.2 MTL
Expected total
6.8
CanadiensThe matchupBlue Jackets
+119Our fair odds−119
3.2Expected goals3.5
+0.01Power rating−0.05
3.3Goals / game3.1
3.4Allowed / game3.2
24.8Shots / game31.4
50.2Faceoff %51.6
21.1Hits / game19.4
10−8Season record9−9
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MTL chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MTLMontreal Canadiens+11946%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−11954%————
Spreadabout even
MTLMontreal Canadiens+0.3our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.8
Over6.8our total————
Under6.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Montreal Canadiens by 6 goals: <1%Montreal Canadiens by 5 goals: 2%Montreal Canadiens by 4 goals: 5%Montreal Canadiens by 3 goals: 10%Montreal Canadiens by 2 goals: 9%Montreal Canadiens by 1 goal: 20%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 20%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 13%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: 1%
← MTL wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more34%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more24%
Montreal Canadiens wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.8 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 6.554%
Total over 7.535%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MTLJakub Dobes G · last 5 starts: .877 save %, 3.39 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .888 save %, 2.94 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MTL·CBJ
Nov 15, 2025 vs BOS
last game
Nov 15, 2025 vs NYR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
MTL·CBJ
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.05
3.3
goals / game
3.1
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.2
10−8
season record
9−9
5−5
home record
4−4
5−3
away record
5−5
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
24.8
shots / game
31.4
50.2
faceoff %
51.6
21.1
hits / game
19.4
16.6
blocked shots / game
14.2
4.2
takeaways / game
5.0
13.4
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

MTL · CBJ · 35 days
Montreal CanadiensColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 3−7
Dec 23, 2024at CBJCBJ 5 − 4
Nov 27, 2024at CBJMTL 4 − 3 OT
Nov 16, 2024at MTLMTL 5 − 1
Mar 12, 2024at MTLMTL 3 − 0
Nov 29, 2023at CBJMTL 4 − 2
Oct 26, 2023at MTLMTL 4 − 3 OT
Mar 25, 2023at MTLMTL 8 − 2
Nov 23, 2022at CBJMTL 3 − 1
Nov 17, 2022at CBJCBJ 6 − 4
Apr 13, 2022at CBJCBJ 5 − 1

MTL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Nov 15, 2025vs BOS2 − 3L
Nov 13, 2025vs DAL0 − 7L
Nov 11, 2025vs LA1 − 5L
Nov 8, 2025vs UTAH6 − 2W
Nov 6, 2025at NJ3 − 4L
Nov 4, 2025vs PHI4 − 5L
Nov 1, 2025vs OTT4 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at SEA4 − 3W
Oct 25, 2025at VAN4 − 3W
Oct 23, 2025at EDM5 − 6L

CBJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 15, 2025vs NYR1 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025vs EDM5 − 4W
Nov 11, 2025at SEA2 − 1W
Nov 10, 2025at EDM4 − 5L
Nov 8, 2025at VAN3 − 4L
Nov 5, 2025at CGY1 − 5L
Nov 2, 2025at NYI2 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025vs STL3 − 2W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR6 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at BUF4 − 3W