bayesRatings

Islanders at Lightning

NHL · Saturday, Dec 6 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final NYI 2 – TB 0
← NHL / Dec 6, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI0022
TB0000
Team box
NYI·TB
19
shots
32
1 of 3
power play
0 of 2
42.6
faceoff %
57.4
22
hits
21
22
blocked shots
10
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Calum RitchieNYI102
Casey CizikasNYI101
Anders LeeNYI010
Tony DeAngeloNYI010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ilya SorokinNYI32321.000
Jonas JohanssonTB1817.944

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 0 · NYI 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 36%, TB 64% · Updated Dec 6, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 1.2
Expected score
TB 3.6 – 2.4 NYI
Expected total
5.9
IslandersThe matchupLightning
+177Our fair odds−177
2.4Expected goals3.6
−0.08Power rating+0.30
3.0Goals / game3.3
2.9Allowed / game2.6
29.7Shots / game27.2
51.9Faceoff %45.8
17.7Hits / game19.0
15−13Season record16−11
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · TB chance
Our model fair36.1%63.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+17736%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−17764%————
SpreadTB by 1.2
NYINew York Islanders+1.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−1.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 1.2 expected
New York Islanders by 7 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 21%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 13%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 18%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 5%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 7 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more49%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more36%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more13%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .910 save %, 2.28 GAAstarted
TBJonas Johansson G · last 5 starts: .875 save %, 3.04 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·TB
Dec 4, 2025 vs COL
last game
Dec 4, 2025 vs PIT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 27+ games
NYI·TB
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
3.0
goals / game
3.3
2.9
goals allowed / game
2.6
15−13
season record
16−11
7−8
home record
8−6
8−5
away record
8−5
W2
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
7−3
29.7
shots / game
27.2
51.9
faceoff %
45.8
17.7
hits / game
19.0
15.2
blocked shots / game
13.5
4.1
takeaways / game
4.1
15.1
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

NYI · TB · 53 days
New York IslandersTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 6−4
Dec 2, 2025at NYINYI 2 − 1
Apr 1, 2025at NYITB 4 − 1
Mar 29, 2025at TBTB 5 − 3
Feb 1, 2025at TBNYI 3 − 2 OT
Mar 30, 2024at TBTB 4 − 1
Feb 24, 2024at NYITB 4 − 2
Feb 8, 2024at NYINYI 6 − 2
Apr 6, 2023at NYINYI 6 − 1
Apr 1, 2023at TBTB 5 − 0
Oct 22, 2022at TBTB 5 − 3

NYI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 4, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Dec 2, 2025vs TB2 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025vs WSH1 − 4L
Nov 28, 2025vs PHI3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA1 − 0W
Nov 22, 2025vs STL1 − 2L
Nov 20, 2025at DET5 − 0W
Nov 18, 2025at DAL3 − 2W
Nov 16, 2025at COL1 − 4L

TB · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Dec 4, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at NYI1 − 2L
Nov 29, 2025at NYR4 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025at DET6 − 3W
Nov 26, 2025vs CGY5 − 1W
Nov 24, 2025vs PHI3 − 0W
Nov 22, 2025at WSH5 − 3W
Nov 20, 2025vs EDM2 − 1W
Nov 18, 2025vs NJ5 − 1W
Nov 16, 2025vs VAN2 − 6L