bayesRatings

Kraken at Islanders

NHL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 4:00 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final SEA 0 – NYI 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
SEA000000
NYI000011
Team box
SEA·NYI
19
shots
34
0 of 1
power play
0 of 2
45.1
faceoff %
54.9
14
hits
18
23
blocked shots
15
4
penalty minutes
2
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Joey DaccordSEA34341.000
David RittichNYI19191.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 44%, NYI 56% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYI 3.0 – 3.0 SEA
Expected total
6.0
KrakenThe matchupIslanders
+127Our fair odds−127
3.0Expected goals3.0
−0.08Power rating−0.07
2.7Goals / game3.2
2.8Allowed / game3.0
24.4Shots / game28.5
45.2Faceoff %52.0
18.9Hits / game17.5
11−10Season record12−10
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · NYI chance
Our model fair44.0%56.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Kraken+12744%————
NYINew York Islanders−12756%————
Spreadabout even
SEASeattle Kraken+0.1our margin————
NYINew York Islanders−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 2%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 5%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 11%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 10%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 16%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 27%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 10%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 11%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%
← SEA wins byNYI wins by →
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more28%
New York Islanders wins by 3 or more19%
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SEAJoey Daccord G · last 5 starts: .890 save %, 2.95 GAAstarted
NYIDavid Rittich G · last 5 starts: .875 save %, 3.38 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·NYI
Nov 22, 2025 at PIT
last game
Nov 22, 2025 vs STL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
SEA·NYI
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
2.7
goals / game
3.2
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.0
11−10
season record
12−10
6−4
home record
4−5
5−6
away record
8−5
W2
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
24.4
shots / game
28.5
45.2
faceoff %
52.0
18.9
hits / game
17.5
15.9
blocked shots / game
15.0
4.5
takeaways / game
4.1
16.1
giveaways / game
15.1

Rating Trend

SEA · NYI · 41 days
Seattle KrakenNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NYI 2−6
Dec 5, 2024at NYISEA 5 − 2
Nov 16, 2024at SEASEA 3 − 2
Feb 13, 2024at NYISEA 2 − 1 SO
Nov 16, 2023at SEASEA 4 − 3 SO
Feb 7, 2023at NYINYI 4 − 0
Jan 1, 2023at SEASEA 4 − 1
Feb 22, 2022at SEANYI 5 − 2
Feb 2, 2022at NYISEA 3 − 0

SEA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 22, 2025at PIT3 − 2W
Nov 20, 2025at CHI3 − 2W
Nov 18, 2025at DET2 − 4L
Nov 15, 2025vs SJ4 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025vs WPG5 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs CBJ1 − 2L
Nov 9, 2025at DAL1 − 2L
Nov 8, 2025at STL4 − 3W
Nov 5, 2025vs SJ1 − 6L
Nov 3, 2025vs CHI3 − 1W

NYI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Nov 22, 2025vs STL1 − 2L
Nov 20, 2025at DET5 − 0W
Nov 18, 2025at DAL3 − 2W
Nov 16, 2025at COL1 − 4L
Nov 14, 2025at UTAH3 − 2W
Nov 13, 2025at VGK4 − 3W
Nov 10, 2025at NJ3 − 2W
Nov 8, 2025at NYR5 − 0W
Nov 7, 2025vs MIN2 − 5L
Nov 4, 2025vs BOS3 − 4L