bayesRatings

Mammoth at Bruins

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 16 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final UTAH 1 – BOS 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
UTAH1001
BOS1124
Team box
UTAH·BOS
21
shots
23
1 of 3
power play
1 of 4
48.3
faceoff %
51.7
21
hits
21
10
blocked shots
23
28
penalty minutes
16
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Vitek VanecekUTAH2319.826
Jeremy SwaymanBOS2120.952

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +3
UTAH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: BOS 3 · UTAH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 46%, BOS 54% · Updated Dec 16, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 3.1 – 3.1 UTAH
Expected total
6.3
MammothThe matchupBruins
+116Our fair odds−116
3.1Expected goals3.1
−0.03Power rating−0.04
3.1Goals / game3.3
3.0Allowed / game3.2
28.8Shots / game27.1
47.7Faceoff %51.5
18.5Hits / game24.8
16−18Season record19−14
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · BOS chance
Our model fair46.3%53.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth+11646%————
BOSBoston Bruins−11654%————
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah MammothPKour margin————
BOSBoston BruinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 6%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 12%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 10%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 16%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 26%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 9%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 11%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 5%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more28%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more18%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
UTAHVitek Vanecek G · last 5 starts: .873 save %, 3.16 GAAstarted
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .882 save %, 3.32 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·BOS
Dec 14, 2025 at PIT
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
UTAH·BOS
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.1
goals / game
3.3
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.2
16−18
season record
19−14
8−6
home record
11−5
8−12
away record
8−9
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
28.8
shots / game
27.1
47.7
faceoff %
51.5
18.5
hits / game
24.8
14.1
blocked shots / game
16.3
4.0
takeaways / game
4.7
16.9
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

UTAH · BOS · 63 days
Utah MammothBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · BOS 1−2
Oct 19, 2025at UTAHUTAH 3 − 2
Nov 21, 2024at BOSBOS 1 − 0
Oct 19, 2024at UTAHUTAH 2 − 1 OT

UTAH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Dec 14, 2025at PIT5 − 4W
Dec 12, 2025vs SEA5 − 3W
Dec 10, 2025vs FLA3 − 4L
Dec 8, 2025vs LA2 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at CGY0 − 2L
Dec 5, 2025at VAN4 − 1W
Dec 3, 2025at ANA7 − 0W
Dec 1, 2025at SJ3 − 6L
Nov 29, 2025at STL0 − 1L
Nov 28, 2025at DAL3 − 4L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 14, 2025at MIN2 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025at WPG6 − 3W
Dec 9, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Dec 4, 2025vs STL5 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025at DET4 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025vs DET3 − 2W
Nov 28, 2025vs NYR2 − 6L
Nov 26, 2025at NYI3 − 1W
Nov 23, 2025at SJ1 − 3L