bayesRatings

Kings at Mammoth

NHL · Monday, Dec 8 · 8:00 PM CT · Delta Center · Final LA 4 – UTAH 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
LA2024
UTAH0112
Team box
LA·UTAH
27
shots
21
0 of 1
power play
1 of 4
40.4
faceoff %
59.6
17
hits
32
15
blocked shots
18
8
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Joel ArmiaLA204
Clayton KellerUTAH113
Adrian KempeLA111
Kevin FialaLA021
Anze KopitarLA103
Dylan GuentherUTAH101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Darcy KuemperLA2119.905
Karel VejmelkaUTAH2623.885

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
UTAH +3
LA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: UTAH 0 · LA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 50%, UTAH 50% · Updated Dec 8, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LA 2.9 – 2.6 UTAH
Expected total
5.6
KingsThe matchupMammoth
+100Our fair odds−100
2.9Expected goals2.6
+0.12Power rating−0.07
2.7Goals / game3.0
2.7Allowed / game2.9
28.6Shots / game28.6
49.7Faceoff %47.1
17.0Hits / game18.6
13−15Season record14−16
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · UTAH chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+10050%————
UTAHUtah Mammoth−10050%————
Spreadabout even
LALos Angeles Kings−0.3our margin————
UTAHUtah Mammoth+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 7%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 13%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 11%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 18%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 27%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 8%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 9%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 4%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 1%Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%
← LA wins byUTAH wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more34%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more23%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .937 save %, 1.80 GAAstarted
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .946 save %, 1.42 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·UTAH
Dec 6, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Dec 6, 2025 at CGY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
LA·UTAH
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
2.7
goals / game
3.0
2.7
goals allowed / game
2.9
13−15
season record
14−16
4−9
home record
7−4
9−6
away record
7−12
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
28.6
shots / game
28.6
49.7
faceoff %
47.1
17.0
hits / game
18.6
13.3
blocked shots / game
14.0
4.3
takeaways / game
3.9
16.8
giveaways / game
17.1

Rating Trend

LA · UTAH · 55 days
Los Angeles KingsUtah Mammoth
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · UTAH 0−3
Apr 3, 2025at UTAHLA 4 − 2
Feb 22, 2025at LALA 5 − 3
Oct 26, 2024at LALA 3 − 2

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 6, 2025vs CHI6 − 0W
Dec 4, 2025vs CHI1 − 2L
Dec 2, 2025vs WSH1 − 3L
Nov 29, 2025vs VAN2 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025at ANA4 − 5L
Nov 24, 2025vs OTT2 − 1W
Nov 21, 2025vs BOS1 − 2L
Nov 20, 2025at SJ3 − 4L
Nov 17, 2025at WSH1 − 2L
Nov 15, 2025at OTT1 − 0W

UTAH · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 6, 2025at CGY0 − 2L
Dec 5, 2025at VAN4 − 1W
Dec 3, 2025at ANA7 − 0W
Dec 1, 2025at SJ3 − 6L
Nov 29, 2025at STL0 − 1L
Nov 28, 2025at DAL3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs MTL3 − 4L
Nov 24, 2025vs VGK5 − 1W
Nov 22, 2025vs NYR3 − 2W
Nov 20, 2025vs VGK1 − 4L