bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Kings

NHL · Thursday, Dec 4 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final CHI 2 – LA 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CHI0202
LA0011
Team box
CHI·LA
36
shots
27
1 of 3
power play
0 of 5
44.1
faceoff %
55.9
13
hits
20
25
blocked shots
20
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Frank NazarCHI022
Connor BedardCHI104
Trevor MooreLA103
Wyatt KaiserCHI102
Tyler BertuzziCHI014
Oliver MooreCHI011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Spencer KnightCHI2726.963
Darcy KuemperLA3634.944

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
CHI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 0 · CHI 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 36%, LA 64% · Updated Dec 4, 2025

Expected margin
LA by 0.8
Expected score
LA 3.3 – 2.5 CHI
Expected total
5.8
BlackhawksThe matchupKings
+175Our fair odds−175
2.5Expected goals3.3
−0.25Power rating+0.12
3.2Goals / game2.7
3.0Allowed / game2.8
25.3Shots / game28.6
47.2Faceoff %49.1
17.7Hits / game16.8
11−15Season record12−14
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · LA chance
Our model fair36.4%63.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+17536%————
LALos Angeles Kings−17564%————
SpreadLA by 0.8
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.8our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Kings by 0.8 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 3%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 7%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 7%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 18%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 24%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 12%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 15%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 3%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: 1%
← CHI wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more40%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more28%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHISpencer Knight G · last 5 starts: .893 save %, 2.78 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .918 save %, 2.18 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·LA
Dec 2, 2025 at VGK
last game
Dec 2, 2025 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
CHI·LA
−0.25
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
3.2
goals / game
2.7
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.8
11−15
season record
12−14
6−8
home record
3−8
5−7
away record
9−6
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
25.3
shots / game
28.6
47.2
faceoff %
49.1
17.7
hits / game
16.8
12.5
blocked shots / game
13.2
5.2
takeaways / game
4.2
17.2
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

CHI · LA · 51 days
Chicago BlackhawksLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LA 7−3
Oct 26, 2025at CHILA 3 − 1
Mar 20, 2025at CHILA 3 − 1
Mar 3, 2025at CHICHI 5 − 1
Nov 2, 2024at LACHI 4 − 3 SO
Apr 18, 2024at LALA 5 − 4 OT
Mar 19, 2024at LALA 6 − 2
Mar 15, 2024at CHILA 5 − 0
Jan 22, 2023at CHILA 2 − 1
Nov 10, 2022at LALA 2 − 1 OT
Nov 3, 2022at CHICHI 2 − 1 OT

CHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 2, 2025at VGK3 − 4L
Nov 30, 2025vs ANA5 − 3W
Nov 28, 2025vs NSH3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs MIN3 − 4L
Nov 23, 2025vs COL0 − 1L
Nov 21, 2025at BUF3 − 9L
Nov 20, 2025vs SEA2 − 3L
Nov 18, 2025vs CGY5 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025vs TOR3 − 2W
Nov 12, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L

LA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 2, 2025vs WSH1 − 3L
Nov 29, 2025vs VAN2 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025at ANA4 − 5L
Nov 24, 2025vs OTT2 − 1W
Nov 21, 2025vs BOS1 − 2L
Nov 20, 2025at SJ3 − 4L
Nov 17, 2025at WSH1 − 2L
Nov 15, 2025at OTT1 − 0W
Nov 13, 2025at TOR4 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025at MTL5 − 1W