bayesRatings

Capitals at Kings

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 2 · 9:30 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final WSH 3 – LA 1
← NHL / Dec 2, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH1023
LA0101
Team box
WSH·LA
25
shots
25
1 of 2
power play
0 of 2
53.1
faceoff %
46.9
20
hits
13
21
blocked shots
5
9
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Alex OvechkinWSH022
Aliaksei ProtasWSH105
Adrian KempeLA102
Tom WilsonWSH102
Anthony BeauvillierWSH102
Ryan LeonardWSH013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Logan ThompsonWSH2524.960
Darcy KuemperLA2422.917

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
WSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 0 · WSH 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 48%, LA 52% · Updated Dec 2, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 2.8 – 2.7 LA
Expected total
5.5
CapitalsThe matchupKings
+110Our fair odds−110
2.8Expected goals2.7
+0.22Power rating+0.12
3.4Goals / game2.7
2.7Allowed / game2.8
29.7Shots / game28.7
47.5Faceoff %49.2
20.4Hits / game17.0
15−11Season record12−13
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · LA chance
Our model fair47.7%52.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals+11048%————
LALos Angeles Kings−11052%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Capitals−0.1our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.5
Over5.5our total————
Under5.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 6%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 17%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 28%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 9%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 9%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 4%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byLA wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more31%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more20%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.5 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 16%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.568%
Total over 5.544%
Total over 6.533%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 1.97 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 2.35 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·LA
Nov 30, 2025 at NYI
last game
Nov 29, 2025 vs VAN
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 25+ games
WSH·LA
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
3.4
goals / game
2.7
2.7
goals allowed / game
2.8
15−11
season record
12−13
9−6
home record
3−7
6−5
away record
9−6
W4
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
29.7
shots / game
28.7
47.5
faceoff %
49.2
20.4
hits / game
17.0
14.3
blocked shots / game
13.5
4.7
takeaways / game
4.2
15.7
giveaways / game
16.6

Rating Trend

WSH · LA · 49 days
Washington CapitalsLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · LA 3−6
Nov 17, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 1
Mar 13, 2025at LALA 3 − 0
Dec 22, 2024at WSHWSH 3 − 1
Jan 7, 2024at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Nov 29, 2023at LAWSH 2 − 1
Mar 6, 2023at LALA 4 − 2
Oct 22, 2022at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Dec 19, 2021at WSHLA 3 − 2
Nov 17, 2021at LAWSH 2 − 0

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Nov 30, 2025at NYI4 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025vs TOR4 − 2W
Nov 26, 2025vs WPG4 − 3W
Nov 24, 2025vs CBJ5 − 1W
Nov 22, 2025vs TB3 − 5L
Nov 20, 2025at MTL8 − 4W
Nov 19, 2025vs EDM7 − 4W
Nov 17, 2025vs LA2 − 1W
Nov 15, 2025vs NJ2 − 3L
Nov 13, 2025at FLA3 − 6L

LA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 29, 2025vs VAN2 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025at ANA4 − 5L
Nov 24, 2025vs OTT2 − 1W
Nov 21, 2025vs BOS1 − 2L
Nov 20, 2025at SJ3 − 4L
Nov 17, 2025at WSH1 − 2L
Nov 15, 2025at OTT1 − 0W
Nov 13, 2025at TOR4 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025at MTL5 − 1W
Nov 9, 2025at PIT3 − 2W