bayesRatings

Sharks at Penguins

NHL · Saturday, Dec 13 · 2:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final SJ 6 – PIT 5
← NHL / Dec 13, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
SJ10416
PIT13105
Team box
SJ·PIT
31
shots
43
1 of 4
power play
3 of 5
50.8
faceoff %
49.2
17
hits
14
16
blocked shots
21
14
penalty minutes
12
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Tyler ToffoliSJ225
Macklin CelebriniSJ126
Bryan RustPIT123
Anthony ManthaPIT122
Alexander WennbergSJ033
John KlingbergSJ202
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Yaroslav AskarovSJ4338.884
Arturs SilovsPIT3125.806

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +4
SJ +4
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: PIT 4 · SJ 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SJ 34%, PIT 66% · Updated Dec 13, 2025

Expected margin
PIT by 1.1
Expected score
PIT 4.0 – 2.8 SJ
Expected total
6.8
SharksThe matchupPenguins
+197Our fair odds−197
2.8Expected goals4.0
−0.52Power rating−0.01
2.8Goals / game3.1
3.3Allowed / game2.9
24.1Shots / game28.3
46.9Faceoff %50.4
20.6Hits / game16.4
15−17Season record14−15
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · PIT chance
Our model fair33.7%66.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+19734%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−19766%————
SpreadPIT by 1.1
SJSan Jose Sharks+1.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.8
Over6.8our total————
Under6.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Penguins by 1.1 expected
San Jose Sharks by 7 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 3%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 6%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 6%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 17%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 21%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 12%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 17%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 11%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 5%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: 1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 7 goals: 1%
← SJ wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more46%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 3 or more34%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more16%
Decided by one goal37%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.8 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.565%
Total over 6.554%
Total over 7.535%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .925 save %, 2.37 GAAstarted
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 2.52 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·PIT
Dec 11, 2025 at TOR
last game
Dec 11, 2025 vs MTL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
SJ·PIT
−0.52
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
2.8
goals / game
3.1
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.9
15−17
season record
14−15
9−8
home record
6−8
6−9
away record
8−7
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
4−6
24.1
shots / game
28.3
46.9
faceoff %
50.4
20.6
hits / game
16.4
15.9
blocked shots / game
15.6
4.1
takeaways / game
4.7
14.9
giveaways / game
16.3

Rating Trend

SJ · PIT · 60 days
San Jose SharksPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · PIT 7−2
Oct 18, 2025at SJPIT 3 − 0
Jan 27, 2025at SJSJ 2 − 1
Nov 16, 2024at PITPIT 4 − 3 SO
Mar 14, 2024at PITPIT 6 − 3
Nov 4, 2023at SJPIT 10 − 2
Feb 14, 2023at SJPIT 3 − 1
Jan 28, 2023at PITSJ 6 − 4
Jan 15, 2022at SJPIT 2 − 1 OT
Jan 2, 2022at PITPIT 8 − 5

SJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 11, 2025at TOR3 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at PHI1 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at CAR4 − 1W
Dec 5, 2025at DAL1 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025vs WSH1 − 7L
Dec 1, 2025vs UTAH6 − 3W
Nov 29, 2025at VGK3 − 4L
Nov 28, 2025vs VAN3 − 2W
Nov 26, 2025at COL0 − 6L
Nov 23, 2025vs BOS3 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 11, 2025vs MTL2 − 4L
Dec 9, 2025vs ANA3 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at DAL2 − 3L
Dec 4, 2025at TB4 − 3W
Dec 1, 2025at PHI5 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025vs TOR2 − 7L
Nov 28, 2025at CBJ4 − 3W
Nov 26, 2025vs BUF4 − 2W
Nov 22, 2025vs SEA2 − 3L
Nov 21, 2025vs MIN0 − 5L