bayesRatings

Wild at Blue Jackets

NHL · Thursday, Dec 18 · 6:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final MIN 5 – CBJ 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MIN0235
CBJ1102
Team box
MIN·CBJ
28
shots
29
1 of 1
power play
0 of 2
35.8
faceoff %
64.2
15
hits
26
18
blocked shots
12
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jesper WallstedtMIN2927.931
Jet GreavesCBJ2623.885

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
MIN +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 1 · MIN 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 51%, CBJ 49% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 3.2 – 3.0 CBJ
Expected total
6.3
WildThe matchupBlue Jackets
−103Our fair odds+103
3.2Expected goals3.0
+0.07Power rating−0.14
3.1Goals / game3.0
2.6Allowed / game3.5
28.2Shots / game30.3
47.1Faceoff %50.2
22.3Hits / game18.5
20−14Season record14−19
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair50.8%49.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Wild−10351%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+10349%————
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Wild−0.2our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 2%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 7%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 13%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 10%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 18%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 23%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 5%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%
← MIN wins byCBJ wins by →
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more33%
Minnesota Wild wins by 3 or more22%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MINJesper Wallstedt G · last 5 starts: .951 save %, 1.59 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 2.57 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·CBJ
Dec 16, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Dec 16, 2025 vs ANA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
MIN·CBJ
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
3.1
goals / game
3.0
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.5
20−14
season record
14−19
12−7
home record
7−8
8−7
away record
7−11
W5
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
3−7
28.2
shots / game
30.3
47.1
faceoff %
50.2
22.3
hits / game
18.5
15.6
blocked shots / game
14.3
4.6
takeaways / game
4.9
14.8
giveaways / game
16.2

Rating Trend

MIN · CBJ · 65 days
Minnesota WildColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CBJ 3−6
Oct 11, 2025at MINCBJ 7 − 4
Oct 19, 2024at CBJMIN 3 − 1
Oct 10, 2024at MINMIN 3 − 2
Jan 6, 2024at CBJMIN 4 − 3 OT
Oct 21, 2023at MINCBJ 5 − 4 OT
Feb 26, 2023at MINMIN 3 − 2 OT
Feb 23, 2023at CBJMIN 2 − 0
Mar 26, 2022at MINMIN 3 − 2 OT
Mar 11, 2022at CBJCBJ 3 − 2 SO

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Dec 16, 2025vs WSH5 − 0W
Dec 14, 2025vs BOS6 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025vs OTT3 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs DAL5 − 2W
Dec 8, 2025at SEA4 − 1W
Dec 6, 2025at VAN2 − 4L
Dec 4, 2025at CGY1 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at EDM1 − 0W
Nov 29, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Nov 28, 2025vs COL3 − 2W

CBJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 16, 2025vs ANA4 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025vs OTT3 − 6L
Dec 9, 2025at CAR1 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at WSH0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025at FLA6 − 7L
Dec 4, 2025vs DET6 − 5W
Dec 1, 2025at NJ5 − 3W
Nov 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs TOR1 − 2L