bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Capitals

NHL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final CBJ 0 – WSH 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ0000
WSH0112
Team box
CBJ·WSH
39
shots
38
0 of 3
power play
0 of 4
47.5
faceoff %
52.5
12
hits
16
7
blocked shots
11
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ3736.973
Logan ThompsonWSH39391.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 2 · CBJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 38%, WSH 62% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 0.9
Expected score
WSH 3.7 – 2.8 CBJ
Expected total
6.4
Blue JacketsThe matchupCapitals
+161Our fair odds−161
2.8Expected goals3.7
−0.07Power rating+0.22
3.2Goals / game3.5
3.5Allowed / game2.6
30.4Shots / game29.3
50.4Faceoff %47.9
18.8Hits / game20.0
13−15Season record17−12
4−6Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · WSH chance
Our model fair38.4%61.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+16138%————
WSHWashington Capitals−16162%————
SpreadWSH by 0.9
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.9our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Capitals by 0.9 expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 7 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 21%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 19%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 16%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 10%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 4%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 7 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more44%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more32%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .894 save %, 2.84 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .942 save %, 1.57 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·WSH
Dec 6, 2025 at FLA
last game
Dec 5, 2025 at ANA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
CBJ·WSH
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
3.2
goals / game
3.5
3.5
goals allowed / game
2.6
13−15
season record
17−12
6−6
home record
9−6
7−9
away record
8−6
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
8−2
30.4
shots / game
29.3
50.4
faceoff %
47.9
18.8
hits / game
20.0
14.2
blocked shots / game
14.8
4.8
takeaways / game
4.8
16.5
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

CBJ · WSH · 54 days
Columbus Blue JacketsWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 7−3
Nov 24, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 1
Oct 24, 2025at CBJWSH 5 − 1
Apr 13, 2025at WSHCBJ 4 − 1
Apr 12, 2025at CBJCBJ 7 − 0
Dec 12, 2024at CBJWSH 2 − 1 OT
Nov 2, 2024at WSHWSH 7 − 2
Dec 21, 2023at CBJWSH 3 − 2 OT
Nov 18, 2023at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Nov 4, 2023at WSHWSH 2 − 1
Mar 21, 2023at WSHCBJ 7 − 6 OT

CBJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 6, 2025at FLA6 − 7L
Dec 4, 2025vs DET6 − 5W
Dec 1, 2025at NJ5 − 3W
Nov 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs TOR1 − 2L
Nov 24, 2025at WSH1 − 5L
Nov 22, 2025at DET3 − 4L
Nov 20, 2025at TOR3 − 2W
Nov 18, 2025at WPG2 − 5L
Nov 17, 2025vs MTL4 − 3W

WSH · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Dec 5, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025at SJ7 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at LA3 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025at NYI4 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025vs TOR4 − 2W
Nov 26, 2025vs WPG4 − 3W
Nov 24, 2025vs CBJ5 − 1W
Nov 22, 2025vs TB3 − 5L
Nov 20, 2025at MTL8 − 4W
Nov 19, 2025vs EDM7 − 4W