bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Red Wings

NHL · Saturday, Nov 22 · 12:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final CBJ 3 – DET 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
CBJ11103
DET01214
Team box
CBJ·DET
35
shots
33
1 of 3
power play
0 of 2
57.4
faceoff %
42.6
16
hits
12
16
blocked shots
22
8
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Zach WerenskiCBJ117
Moritz SeiderDET113
Ben ChiarotDET112
Patrick KaneDET022
Lucas RaymondDET104
Adam FantilliCBJ103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ3329.879
Cam TalbotDET3532.914

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: DET 1 · CBJ 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 44%, DET 56% · Updated Nov 22, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 3.4 – 3.1 CBJ
Expected total
6.5
Blue JacketsThe matchupRed Wings
+126Our fair odds−126
3.1Expected goals3.4
−0.03Power rating−0.03
3.1Goals / game3.0
3.2Allowed / game3.2
30.5Shots / game29.8
49.8Faceoff %53.1
18.7Hits / game19.5
11−10Season record12−9
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · DET chance
Our model fair44.3%55.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+12644%————
DETDetroit Red Wings−12656%————
Spreadabout even
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.2our margin————
DETDetroit Red Wings−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 5%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 17%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 24%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 10%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 12%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 6%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more31%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more21%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .925 save %, 2.07 GAAstarted
DETCam Talbot G · last 5 starts: .903 save %, 2.33 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·DET
Nov 20, 2025 at TOR
last game
Nov 20, 2025 vs NYI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 21+ games
CBJ·DET
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.1
goals / game
3.0
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.2
11−10
season record
12−9
5−4
home record
7−5
6−6
away record
5−4
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
30.5
shots / game
29.8
49.8
faceoff %
53.1
18.7
hits / game
19.5
14.5
blocked shots / game
15.0
4.8
takeaways / game
3.9
16.4
giveaways / game
16.8

Rating Trend

CBJ · DET · 40 days
Columbus Blue JacketsDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Mar 1, 2025at CBJCBJ 5 − 3
Feb 27, 2025at DETCBJ 5 − 2
Jan 2, 2025at CBJDET 5 − 4
Mar 19, 2024at DETDET 4 − 3 OT
Nov 11, 2023at DETDET 5 − 4
Oct 16, 2023at CBJDET 4 − 0
Jan 14, 2023at DETCBJ 4 − 3
Dec 4, 2022at CBJDET 4 − 2
Nov 19, 2022at CBJDET 6 − 1
Apr 9, 2022at DETCBJ 5 − 4 OT

CBJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 20, 2025at TOR3 − 2W
Nov 18, 2025at WPG2 − 5L
Nov 17, 2025vs MTL4 − 3W
Nov 15, 2025vs NYR1 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025vs EDM5 − 4W
Nov 11, 2025at SEA2 − 1W
Nov 10, 2025at EDM4 − 5L
Nov 8, 2025at VAN3 − 4L
Nov 5, 2025at CGY1 − 5L
Nov 2, 2025at NYI2 − 3L

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Nov 20, 2025vs NYI0 − 5L
Nov 18, 2025vs SEA4 − 2W
Nov 16, 2025at NYR2 − 1W
Nov 15, 2025vs BUF4 − 5L
Nov 13, 2025vs ANA6 − 3W
Nov 9, 2025vs CHI1 − 5L
Nov 7, 2025vs NYR1 − 4L
Nov 4, 2025at VGK0 − 1L
Nov 2, 2025at SJ3 − 2W
Oct 31, 2025at ANA2 − 5L