bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Jets

NHL · Tuesday, Nov 18 · 7:00 PM CT · Canada Life Centre · Final CBJ 2 – WPG 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ1012
WPG1225
Team box
CBJ·WPG
22
shots
30
0 of 1
power play
1 of 2
45.2
faceoff %
54.8
13
hits
16
11
blocked shots
18
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Mark ScheifeleWPG031
Kyle ConnorWPG113
Neal PionkWPG112
Josh MorrisseyWPG111
Nino NiederreiterWPG020
Adam LowryWPG103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ3025.833
Eric ComrieWPG2220.909

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WPG +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WPG 3 · CBJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 37%, WPG 63% · Updated Nov 18, 2025

Expected margin
WPG by 0.9
Expected score
WPG 3.5 – 2.6 CBJ
Expected total
6.1
Blue JacketsThe matchupJets
+168Our fair odds−168
2.6Expected goals3.5
−0.03Power rating+0.26
3.2Goals / game3.3
3.2Allowed / game2.8
31.0Shots / game26.9
51.0Faceoff %52.9
19.2Hits / game21.0
10−9Season record11−7
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · WPG chance
Our model fair37.3%62.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+16837%————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−16863%————
SpreadWPG by 0.9
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.9our margin————
WPGWinnipeg Jets−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Winnipeg Jets by 0.9 expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 7 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 6%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 20%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 20%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 12%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 16%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 9%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 4%Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: 1%Winnipeg Jets by 7 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins byWPG wins by →
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more43%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 3 or more31%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more17%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.555%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJElvis Merzlikins G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.98 GAAstarted
WPGEric Comrie G · last 5 starts: .911 save %, 2.81 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·WPG
Nov 17, 2025 vs MTL
last game
Nov 15, 2025 at CGY
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 18+ games
CBJ·WPG
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
3.2
goals / game
3.3
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.8
10−9
season record
11−7
5−4
home record
5−3
5−5
away record
6−4
W1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
31.0
shots / game
26.9
51.0
faceoff %
52.9
19.2
hits / game
21.0
14.1
blocked shots / game
16.2
4.9
takeaways / game
4.5
16.2
giveaways / game
15.2

Rating Trend

CBJ · WPG · 36 days
Columbus Blue JacketsWinnipeg Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · WPG 4−4
Dec 8, 2024at WPGCBJ 4 − 1
Nov 1, 2024at CBJWPG 6 − 2
Mar 17, 2024at CBJWPG 6 − 1
Jan 9, 2024at WPGWPG 5 − 0
Feb 16, 2023at CBJCBJ 3 − 1
Dec 2, 2022at WPGCBJ 4 − 1
Mar 25, 2022at WPGWPG 4 − 3 OT
Nov 24, 2021at CBJCBJ 3 − 0

CBJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 17, 2025vs MTL4 − 3W
Nov 15, 2025vs NYR1 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025vs EDM5 − 4W
Nov 11, 2025at SEA2 − 1W
Nov 10, 2025at EDM4 − 5L
Nov 8, 2025at VAN3 − 4L
Nov 5, 2025at CGY1 − 5L
Nov 2, 2025at NYI2 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025vs STL3 − 2W
Oct 29, 2025vs TOR6 − 3W

WPG · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 15, 2025at CGY4 − 3W
Nov 13, 2025at SEA3 − 5L
Nov 11, 2025at VAN5 − 3W
Nov 9, 2025at ANA1 − 4L
Nov 7, 2025at SJ1 − 2L
Nov 4, 2025at LA0 − 3L
Nov 1, 2025vs PIT5 − 2W
Oct 30, 2025vs CHI6 − 3W
Oct 28, 2025at MIN4 − 3W
Oct 26, 2025vs UTAH2 − 3L