bayesRatings

Red Wings at Blue Jackets

NHL · Thursday, Dec 4 · 6:30 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final DET 5 – CBJ 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
DET032005
CBJ131016
Team box
DET·CBJ
33
shots
32
3 of 5
power play
2 of 3
45.2
faceoff %
54.8
15
hits
24
21
blocked shots
11
6
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Zach WerenskiCBJ033
Sean MonahanCBJ030
Adam FantilliCBJ203
Patrick KaneDET114
Lucas RaymondDET111
Andrew CoppDET023
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Cam TalbotDET3227.844
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ3328.848

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
DET +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: CBJ 2 · DET 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 44%, CBJ 56% · Updated Dec 4, 2025

Expected margin
CBJ by 0.5
Expected score
CBJ 3.5 – 3.0 DET
Expected total
6.6
Red WingsThe matchupBlue Jackets
+127Our fair odds−127
3.0Expected goals3.5
−0.12Power rating−0.07
3.0Goals / game3.0
3.4Allowed / game3.3
30.4Shots / game30.3
52.8Faceoff %50.5
19.2Hits / game18.7
14−13Season record12−14
4−6Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair44.1%55.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings+12744%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−12756%————
SpreadCBJ by 0.5
DETDetroit Red Wings+0.5our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Columbus Blue Jackets by 0.5 expected
Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 1%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 4%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 9%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 8%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 21%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 19%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 14%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 8%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: 1%
← DET wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more37%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more26%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETCam Talbot G · last 5 starts: .872 save %, 3.19 GAAstarted
CBJElvis Merzlikins G · last 5 starts: .873 save %, 4.04 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CBJ
Dec 2, 2025 vs BOS
last game
Dec 1, 2025 at NJ
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 26+ games
DET·CBJ
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.0
goals / game
3.0
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.3
14−13
season record
12−14
9−7
home record
5−6
5−6
away record
7−8
W1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
4−6
30.4
shots / game
30.3
52.8
faceoff %
50.5
19.2
hits / game
18.7
15.5
blocked shots / game
14.1
4.0
takeaways / game
4.8
16.6
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

DET · CBJ · 51 days
Detroit Red WingsColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 3−7
Nov 22, 2025at DETDET 4 − 3 OT
Mar 1, 2025at CBJCBJ 5 − 3
Feb 27, 2025at DETCBJ 5 − 2
Jan 2, 2025at CBJDET 5 − 4
Mar 19, 2024at DETDET 4 − 3 OT
Nov 11, 2023at DETDET 5 − 4
Oct 16, 2023at CBJDET 4 − 0
Jan 14, 2023at DETCBJ 4 − 3
Dec 4, 2022at CBJDET 4 − 2
Nov 19, 2022at CBJDET 6 − 1

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 2, 2025vs BOS5 − 4W
Nov 29, 2025at BOS2 − 3L
Nov 28, 2025vs TB3 − 6L
Nov 26, 2025vs NSH3 − 6L
Nov 24, 2025at NJ3 − 4L
Nov 22, 2025vs CBJ4 − 3W
Nov 20, 2025vs NYI0 − 5L
Nov 18, 2025vs SEA4 − 2W
Nov 16, 2025at NYR2 − 1W
Nov 15, 2025vs BUF4 − 5L

CBJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 1, 2025at NJ5 − 3W
Nov 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs TOR1 − 2L
Nov 24, 2025at WSH1 − 5L
Nov 22, 2025at DET3 − 4L
Nov 20, 2025at TOR3 − 2W
Nov 18, 2025at WPG2 − 5L
Nov 17, 2025vs MTL4 − 3W
Nov 15, 2025vs NYR1 − 2L
Nov 13, 2025vs EDM5 − 4W