bayesRatings

Senators at Blue Jackets

NHL · Thursday, Dec 11 · 6:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final OTT 6 – CBJ 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
OTT4116
CBJ1203
Team box
OTT·CBJ
29
shots
27
1 of 2
power play
1 of 1
57.8
faceoff %
42.2
18
hits
23
21
blocked shots
12
2
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Michael AmadioOTT123
Drake BathersonOTT122
Dylan CozensOTT033
Tim StutzleOTT204
David PerronOTT115
Boone JennerCBJ112
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Linus UllmarkOTT2724.889
Jet GreavesCBJ2321.913
Elvis MerzlikinsCBJ52.400

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
OTT +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 0 · OTT 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OTT 47%, CBJ 53% · Updated Dec 11, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.5 – 3.2 OTT
Expected total
6.7
SenatorsThe matchupBlue Jackets
+115Our fair odds−115
3.2Expected goals3.5
−0.03Power rating−0.08
3.1Goals / game3.0
3.3Allowed / game3.4
27.1Shots / game30.5
56.4Faceoff %49.9
23.7Hits / game18.4
13−16Season record13−17
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+11547%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−11553%————
Spreadabout even
OTTOttawa Senators+0.3our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 5%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 10%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 21%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 19%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 13%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: 1%
← OTT wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more34%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more24%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
OTTLinus Ullmark G · last 5 starts: .874 save %, 3.40 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .906 save %, 2.78 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·CBJ
Dec 9, 2025 vs NJ
last game
Dec 9, 2025 at CAR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 29+ games
OTT·CBJ
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
3.1
goals / game
3.0
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.4
13−16
season record
13−17
6−8
home record
6−6
7−8
away record
7−11
L3
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
3−7
27.1
shots / game
30.5
56.4
faceoff %
49.9
23.7
hits / game
18.4
14.2
blocked shots / game
14.1
4.8
takeaways / game
4.9
14.3
giveaways / game
16.3

Rating Trend

OTT · CBJ · 58 days
Ottawa SenatorsColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 3−7
Apr 8, 2025at CBJCBJ 5 − 2
Apr 6, 2025at OTTOTT 4 − 0
Mar 29, 2025at OTTOTT 3 − 2
Mar 14, 2024at CBJOTT 3 − 2 SO
Feb 13, 2024at OTTOTT 6 − 3
Dec 1, 2023at CBJCBJ 4 − 2
Apr 2, 2023at CBJCBJ 4 − 3 OT
Mar 4, 2023at OTTOTT 5 − 2
Jan 3, 2023at OTTOTT 4 − 0
Apr 22, 2022at CBJOTT 2 − 1 SO

OTT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 9, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs STL1 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs NYR2 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at MTL5 − 2W
Nov 30, 2025at DAL1 − 6L
Nov 28, 2025at STL3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025at VGK4 − 3W
Nov 24, 2025at LA1 − 2L
Nov 22, 2025at SJ3 − 2W
Nov 20, 2025at ANA3 − 2W

CBJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Dec 9, 2025at CAR1 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at WSH0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025at FLA6 − 7L
Dec 4, 2025vs DET6 − 5W
Dec 1, 2025at NJ5 − 3W
Nov 28, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs TOR1 − 2L
Nov 24, 2025at WSH1 − 5L
Nov 22, 2025at DET3 − 4L
Nov 20, 2025at TOR3 − 2W