bayesRatings

Islanders at Blue Jackets

NHL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 4:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final NYI 2 – CBJ 4
← NHL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI1102
CBJ1034
Team box
NYI·CBJ
26
shots
35
0 of 2
power play
0 of 4
55.9
faceoff %
44.1
15
hits
25
20
blocked shots
17
21
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ205
Sean MonahanCBJ022
Denton MateychukCBJ022
Ivan ProvorovCBJ102
Cole SillingerCBJ102
Bo HorvatNYI102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
David RittichNYI3431.912
Jet GreavesCBJ2624.923

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 2 · NYI 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 48%, CBJ 52% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.2 – 3.2 NYI
Expected total
6.4
IslandersThe matchupBlue Jackets
+108Our fair odds−108
3.2Expected goals3.2
−0.04Power rating−0.14
2.9Goals / game3.0
2.7Allowed / game3.5
28.4Shots / game30.1
51.1Faceoff %50.9
18.6Hits / game18.4
21−17Season record15−21
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair48.2%51.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+10848%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−10852%————
Spreadabout even
NYINew York Islanders+0.1our margin————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 11%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 9%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 20%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 21%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 12%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 6%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more30%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more21%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIDavid Rittich G · last 5 starts: .948 save %, 1.59 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .905 save %, 2.53 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·CBJ
Dec 27, 2025 vs NYR
last game
Dec 22, 2025 at LA
0 days
days of rest
5 days
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
NYI·CBJ
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
2.9
goals / game
3.0
2.7
goals allowed / game
3.5
21−17
season record
15−21
12−9
home record
7−9
9−8
away record
8−12
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
28.4
shots / game
30.1
51.1
faceoff %
50.9
18.6
hits / game
18.4
15.3
blocked shots / game
14.1
4.4
takeaways / game
4.9
15.1
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

NYI · CBJ · 72 days
New York IslandersColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 4−6
Nov 2, 2025at NYINYI 3 − 2
Apr 17, 2025at CBJCBJ 6 − 1
Mar 24, 2025at NYICBJ 4 − 3 SO
Jan 20, 2025at NYINYI 3 − 1
Oct 30, 2024at CBJCBJ 2 − 0
Apr 4, 2024at CBJNYI 4 − 2
Dec 7, 2023at NYINYI 7 − 3
Oct 28, 2023at CBJNYI 2 − 0
Mar 24, 2023at CBJCBJ 5 − 4 OT
Dec 29, 2022at NYINYI 2 − 1

NYI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 27, 2025vs NYR2 − 0W
Dec 23, 2025vs NJ2 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at BUF2 − 3L
Dec 19, 2025vs VAN1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs ANA5 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs VGK5 − 4W
Dec 7, 2025at FLA1 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at TB2 − 0W

CBJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 22, 2025at LA3 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025vs MIN2 − 5L
Dec 16, 2025vs ANA4 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025vs OTT3 − 6L
Dec 9, 2025at CAR1 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at WSH0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025at FLA6 − 7L
Dec 4, 2025vs DET6 − 5W