bayesRatings

Devils at Islanders

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 6:00 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final NJ 1 – NYI 2
← NHL / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NJ1001
NYI0112
Team box
NJ·NYI
32
shots
25
0 of 0
power play
0 of 0
55.0
faceoff %
45.0
15
hits
26
20
blocked shots
11
0
penalty minutes
0
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Simon HolmstromNYI111
Brett PesceNJ105
Adam PelechNYI101
Nico HischierNJ013
Dawson MercerNJ012
Anders LeeNYI012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jacob MarkstromNJ2523.920
David RittichNYI3231.969

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +3
NJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYI 1 · NJ 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NJ 46%, NYI 54% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYI 2.8 – 2.8 NJ
Expected total
5.6
DevilsThe matchupIslanders
+119Our fair odds−119
2.8Expected goals2.8
−0.05Power rating−0.04
2.8Goals / game2.9
3.0Allowed / game2.9
29.2Shots / game28.6
50.5Faceoff %51.5
20.0Hits / game18.5
20−16Season record19−17
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NJ chance · NYI chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NJNew Jersey Devils+11946%————
NYINew York Islanders−11954%————
Spreadabout even
NJNew Jersey DevilsPKour margin————
NYINew York IslandersPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New Jersey Devils by 5 goals: 2%New Jersey Devils by 4 goals: 5%New Jersey Devils by 3 goals: 11%New Jersey Devils by 2 goals: 10%New Jersey Devils by 1 goal: 17%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 28%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 9%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 10%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%
← NJ wins byNYI wins by →
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more26%
New York Islanders wins by 3 or more17%
New Jersey Devils wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NJJacob Markstrom G · last 5 starts: .914 save %, 2.43 GAAstarted
NYIDavid Rittich G · last 5 starts: .925 save %, 1.92 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NJ·NYI
Dec 21, 2025 vs BUF
last game
Dec 20, 2025 at BUF
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
NJ·NYI
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
2.8
goals / game
2.9
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.9
20−16
season record
19−17
10−8
home record
10−9
10−8
away record
9−8
L1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
6−4
29.2
shots / game
28.6
50.5
faceoff %
51.5
20.0
hits / game
18.5
15.3
blocked shots / game
15.4
4.8
takeaways / game
4.2
15.4
giveaways / game
15.1

Rating Trend

NJ · NYI · 70 days
New Jersey DevilsNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYI 6−4
Nov 10, 2025at NJNYI 3 − 2 OT
Apr 13, 2025at NJNYI 1 − 0
Nov 9, 2024at NYINJ 4 − 3 OT
Oct 25, 2024at NJNYI 4 − 3 OT
Apr 15, 2024at NJNYI 4 − 1
Mar 24, 2024at NYINJ 4 − 0
Nov 28, 2023at NJNJ 5 − 4
Oct 20, 2023at NYINJ 5 − 4 OT
Mar 27, 2023at NYINYI 5 − 1
Dec 9, 2022at NJNYI 6 − 4

NJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 21, 2025vs BUF1 − 3L
Dec 19, 2025at UTAH2 − 1W
Dec 17, 2025at VGK2 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025vs VAN1 − 2L
Dec 13, 2025vs ANA4 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025vs TB4 − 8L
Dec 9, 2025at OTT4 − 3W
Dec 6, 2025at BOS1 − 4L
Dec 5, 2025vs VGK0 − 3L
Dec 3, 2025vs DAL0 − 3L

NYI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Dec 20, 2025at BUF2 − 3L
Dec 19, 2025vs VAN1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs ANA5 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs VGK5 − 4W
Dec 7, 2025at FLA1 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at TB2 − 0W
Dec 4, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Dec 2, 2025vs TB2 − 1W