bayesRatings

Islanders at Sabres

NHL · Saturday, Dec 20 · 4:00 PM CT · KeyBank Center · Final NYI 2 – BUF 3
← NHL / Dec 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
NYI011002
BUF110013
Team box
NYI·BUF
34
shots
32
1 of 3
power play
1 of 4
55.0
faceoff %
45.0
25
hits
18
8
blocked shots
11
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Mathew BarzalNYI114
Emil HeinemanNYI1010
Rasmus DahlinBUF105
Tage ThompsonBUF104
Matthew SchaeferNYI013
Josh DoanBUF012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
David RittichNYI3230.938
Alex LyonBUF3432.941

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: BUF 2 · NYI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 49%, BUF 51% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BUF 3.3 – 3.2 NYI
Expected total
6.5
IslandersThe matchupSabres
+106Our fair odds−106
3.2Expected goals3.3
−0.00Power rating−0.11
2.9Goals / game3.1
2.9Allowed / game3.4
28.4Shots / game28.3
51.4Faceoff %43.9
18.3Hits / game19.1
19−16Season record15−18
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · BUF chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+10649%————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−10651%————
Spreadabout even
NYINew York Islanders+0.1our margin————
BUFBuffalo Sabres−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 11%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 9%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 21%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 21%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 10%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 12%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 6%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 2%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more31%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 3 or more21%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIDavid Rittich G · last 5 starts: .921 save %, 1.94 GAAstarted
BUFAlex Lyon G · last 5 starts: .892 save %, 2.99 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·BUF
Dec 19, 2025 vs VAN
last game
Dec 18, 2025 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
NYI·BUF
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.11
2.9
goals / game
3.1
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.4
19−16
season record
15−18
10−9
home record
10−7
9−7
away record
5−11
L2
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
6−4
28.4
shots / game
28.3
51.4
faceoff %
43.9
18.3
hits / game
19.1
15.6
blocked shots / game
15.2
4.2
takeaways / game
5.1
15.0
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

NYI · BUF · 67 days
New York IslandersBuffalo Sabres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BUF 6−4
Dec 23, 2024at NYIBUF 7 − 1
Nov 30, 2024at NYINYI 3 − 0
Nov 1, 2024at BUFNYI 4 − 3
Mar 14, 2024at BUFBUF 4 − 0
Oct 21, 2023at BUFBUF 3 − 1
Oct 14, 2023at NYINYI 3 − 2
Mar 25, 2023at NYIBUF 2 − 0
Mar 7, 2023at NYINYI 3 − 2
Jan 19, 2023at BUFBUF 3 − 2 OT
Apr 23, 2022at BUFBUF 5 − 3

NYI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Dec 19, 2025vs VAN1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at DET2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs ANA5 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs VGK5 − 4W
Dec 7, 2025at FLA1 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at TB2 − 0W
Dec 4, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Dec 2, 2025vs TB2 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025vs WSH1 − 4L

BUF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Dec 18, 2025vs PHI5 − 3W
Dec 14, 2025at SEA3 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025at VAN3 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at EDM4 − 3W
Dec 8, 2025at CGY4 − 7L
Dec 5, 2025at WPG1 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025at PHI2 − 5L
Dec 1, 2025vs WPG5 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025at MIN3 − 2W
Nov 28, 2025vs NJ0 − 5L