bayesRatings

Islanders at Red Wings

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 16 · 6:00 PM CT · Little Caesars Arena · Final NYI 2 – DET 3
← NHL / Dec 16, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NYI1012
DET0033
Team box
NYI·DET
18
shots
21
0 of 1
power play
2 of 2
54.7
faceoff %
45.3
16
hits
14
21
blocked shots
19
4
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Lucas RaymondDET031
Alex DeBrincatDET206
Moritz SeiderDET020
Emil HeinemanNYI103
Axel Sandin-PellikkaDET101
Scott MayfieldNYI101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Ilya SorokinNYI2118.857
John GibsonDET1816.889

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +3
NYI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: DET 1 · NYI 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYI 47%, DET 53% · Updated Dec 16, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 3.1 – 3.1 NYI
Expected total
6.2
IslandersThe matchupRed Wings
+113Our fair odds−113
3.1Expected goals3.1
−0.00Power rating−0.04
3.0Goals / game3.2
2.8Allowed / game3.3
28.9Shots / game29.7
51.5Faceoff %52.1
18.3Hits / game18.5
19−14Season record18−15
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYI chance · DET chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYINew York Islanders+11347%————
DETDetroit Red Wings−11353%————
Spreadabout even
NYINew York Islanders+0.1our margin————
DETDetroit Red Wings−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 2%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 5%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 11%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 9%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 19%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 23%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 10%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 11%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 6%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%
← NYI wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more30%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more20%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .942 save %, 1.94 GAAstarted
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .940 save %, 2.00 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYI·DET
Dec 13, 2025 vs TB
last game
Dec 13, 2025 at CHI
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
NYI·DET
−0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.0
goals / game
3.2
2.8
goals allowed / game
3.3
19−14
season record
18−15
10−8
home record
9−7
9−6
away record
9−8
W3
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
28.9
shots / game
29.7
51.5
faceoff %
52.1
18.3
hits / game
18.5
15.5
blocked shots / game
16.5
4.3
takeaways / game
4.2
15.1
giveaways / game
16.3

Rating Trend

NYI · DET · 63 days
New York IslandersDetroit Red Wings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 5−5
Nov 20, 2025at DETNYI 5 − 0
Oct 23, 2025at NYINYI 7 − 2
Nov 25, 2024at NYIDET 4 − 2
Nov 21, 2024at DETDET 2 − 1
Oct 22, 2024at NYIDET 1 − 0
Mar 21, 2024at DETDET 6 − 3
Feb 29, 2024at DETNYI 5 − 3
Oct 30, 2023at NYIDET 4 − 3 OT
Mar 4, 2023at NYINYI 4 − 1
Jan 27, 2023at NYINYI 2 − 0

NYI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Dec 13, 2025vs TB3 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs ANA5 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs VGK5 − 4W
Dec 7, 2025at FLA1 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at TB2 − 0W
Dec 4, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Dec 2, 2025vs TB2 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025vs WSH1 − 4L
Nov 28, 2025vs PHI3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 13, 2025at CHI4 − 0W
Dec 11, 2025at EDM1 − 4L
Dec 10, 2025at CGY4 − 3W
Dec 8, 2025at VAN4 − 0W
Dec 6, 2025at SEA4 − 3W
Dec 4, 2025at CBJ5 − 6L
Dec 2, 2025vs BOS5 − 4W
Nov 29, 2025at BOS2 − 3L
Nov 28, 2025vs TB3 − 6L
Nov 26, 2025vs NSH3 − 6L