bayesRatings

Lightning at Islanders

NHL · Saturday, Dec 13 · 2:30 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final TB 2 – NYI 3
← NHL / Dec 13, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
TB011002
NYI200013
Team box
TB·NYI
34
shots
17
1 of 4
power play
1 of 4
50.7
faceoff %
49.3
27
hits
19
10
blocked shots
20
8
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nikita KucherovTB024
Anthony DuclairNYI020
Darren RaddyshTB103
J.J. MoserTB103
Matthew SchaeferNYI102
Calum RitchieNYI101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jonas JohanssonTB1715.882
Brandon HalversonTB00—
Ilya SorokinNYI3432.941

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +3
TB +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: NYI 2 · TB 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 51%, NYI 49% · Updated Dec 13, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 0.7
Expected score
TB 3.3 – 2.6 NYI
Expected total
5.9
LightningThe matchupIslanders
−105Our fair odds+105
3.3Expected goals2.6
+0.20Power rating−0.03
3.3Goals / game3.0
2.6Allowed / game2.8
27.6Shots / game29.2
45.8Faceoff %51.6
19.1Hits / game18.3
18−13Season record18−14
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · NYI chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Lightning−10551%————
NYINew York Islanders+10549%————
SpreadTB by 0.7
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.7our margin————
NYINew York Islanders+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.7 expected
Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: 1%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 3%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 9%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 15%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 17%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 24%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 7%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 7%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 3%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%
← TB wins byNYI wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more40%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more28%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TBJonas Johansson G · last 5 starts: .920 save %, 2.26 GAAstarted
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .935 save %, 1.98 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·NYI
Dec 11, 2025 at NJ
last game
Dec 11, 2025 vs ANA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
TB·NYI
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
3.3
goals / game
3.0
2.6
goals allowed / game
2.8
18−13
season record
18−14
8−7
home record
9−8
10−6
away record
9−6
W2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
27.6
shots / game
29.2
45.8
faceoff %
51.6
19.1
hits / game
18.3
13.3
blocked shots / game
15.4
4.2
takeaways / game
4.3
15.2
giveaways / game
15.2

Rating Trend

TB · NYI · 60 days
Tampa Bay LightningNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYI 5−5
Dec 6, 2025at TBNYI 2 − 0
Dec 2, 2025at NYINYI 2 − 1
Apr 1, 2025at NYITB 4 − 1
Mar 29, 2025at TBTB 5 − 3
Feb 1, 2025at TBNYI 3 − 2 OT
Mar 30, 2024at TBTB 4 − 1
Feb 24, 2024at NYITB 4 − 2
Feb 8, 2024at NYINYI 6 − 2
Apr 6, 2023at NYINYI 6 − 1
Apr 1, 2023at TBTB 5 − 0

TB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 11, 2025at NJ8 − 4W
Dec 9, 2025at MTL6 − 1W
Dec 8, 2025at TOR0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025vs NYI0 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at NYI1 − 2L
Nov 29, 2025at NYR4 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025at DET6 − 3W
Nov 26, 2025vs CGY5 − 1W
Nov 24, 2025vs PHI3 − 0W

NYI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 11, 2025vs ANA5 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs VGK5 − 4W
Dec 7, 2025at FLA1 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at TB2 − 0W
Dec 4, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Dec 2, 2025vs TB2 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025vs WSH1 − 4L
Nov 28, 2025vs PHI3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs BOS1 − 3L
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA1 − 0W