bayesRatings

Red Wings at Blackhawks

NHL · Saturday, Dec 13 · 7:00 PM CT · United Center · Final DET 4 – CHI 0

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DET2114
CHI0000
Team box
DET·CHI
24
shots
26
0 of 3
power play
0 of 3
45.5
faceoff %
54.5
15
hits
30
21
blocked shots
7
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
John GibsonDET26261.000
Arvid SoderblomCHI2320.870

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +4
DET +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: CHI 0 · DET 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 51%, CHI 49% · Updated Dec 13, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 3.2 – 3.1 CHI
Expected total
6.3
Red WingsThe matchupBlackhawks
−106Our fair odds+106
3.2Expected goals3.1
−0.07Power rating−0.31
3.1Goals / game2.9
3.4Allowed / game3.0
29.9Shots / game25.5
52.3Faceoff %46.3
18.6Hits / game17.0
17−15Season record13−18
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CHI chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Red Wings−10651%————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+10649%————
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Red Wings−0.1our margin————
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Red Wings by 6 goals: <1%Detroit Red Wings by 5 goals: 2%Detroit Red Wings by 4 goals: 6%Detroit Red Wings by 3 goals: 12%Detroit Red Wings by 2 goals: 10%Detroit Red Wings by 1 goal: 21%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 21%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 9%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 11%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 5%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 2%Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%
← DET wins byCHI wins by →
Detroit Red Wings wins by 2 or more30%
Detroit Red Wings wins by 3 or more21%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DETJohn Gibson G · last 5 starts: .910 save %, 3.01 GAAstarted
CHIArvid Soderblom G · last 5 starts: .872 save %, 4.62 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CHI
Dec 11, 2025 at EDM
last game
Dec 12, 2025 at STL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
4
games in last 7 days
4
6th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
DET·CHI
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.31
3.1
goals / game
2.9
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.0
17−15
season record
13−18
9−7
home record
7−8
8−8
away record
6−10
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
29.9
shots / game
25.5
52.3
faceoff %
46.3
18.6
hits / game
17.0
16.4
blocked shots / game
12.8
4.1
takeaways / game
5.2
16.4
giveaways / game
16.9

Rating Trend

DET · CHI · 60 days
Detroit Red WingsChicago Blackhawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHI 3−6
Nov 9, 2025at DETCHI 5 − 1
Jan 10, 2025at DETDET 5 − 3
Nov 6, 2024at CHIDET 4 − 1
Feb 25, 2024at CHIDET 3 − 2 OT
Nov 30, 2023at DETDET 5 − 1
Mar 8, 2023at DETDET 4 − 3
Oct 21, 2022at CHICHI 4 − 3 OT
Jan 26, 2022at DETCHI 8 − 5
Oct 24, 2021at CHIDET 6 − 3

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 11, 2025at EDM1 − 4L
Dec 10, 2025at CGY4 − 3W
Dec 8, 2025at VAN4 − 0W
Dec 6, 2025at SEA4 − 3W
Dec 4, 2025at CBJ5 − 6L
Dec 2, 2025vs BOS5 − 4W
Nov 29, 2025at BOS2 − 3L
Nov 28, 2025vs TB3 − 6L
Nov 26, 2025vs NSH3 − 6L
Nov 24, 2025at NJ3 − 4L

CHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 12, 2025at STL2 − 3L
Dec 10, 2025vs NYR3 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025at ANA1 − 7L
Dec 6, 2025at LA0 − 6L
Dec 4, 2025at LA2 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at VGK3 − 4L
Nov 30, 2025vs ANA5 − 3W
Nov 28, 2025vs NSH3 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025vs MIN3 − 4L
Nov 23, 2025vs COL0 − 1L