bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Senators

NHL · Monday, Dec 29 · 6:30 PM CT · Canadian Tire Centre · Final CBJ 4 – OTT 1
← NHL / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ1124
OTT0101
Team box
CBJ·OTT
22
shots
28
0 of 3
power play
0 of 4
52.6
faceoff %
47.4
23
hits
18
16
blocked shots
10
13
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Damon SeversonCBJ111
Charlie CoyleCBJ022
Cole SillingerCBJ021
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ105
Boone JennerCBJ102
Denton MateychukCBJ102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ2827.964
Leevi MerilainenOTT2218.818

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OTT +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: OTT 0 · CBJ 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 42%, OTT 58% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
OTT by 0.7
Expected score
OTT 3.6 – 2.9 CBJ
Expected total
6.5
Blue JacketsThe matchupSenators
+139Our fair odds−139
2.9Expected goals3.6
−0.14Power rating+0.02
3.0Goals / game3.4
3.4Allowed / game3.2
30.3Shots / game27.9
50.7Faceoff %56.1
18.6Hits / game23.9
16−21Season record18−19
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · OTT chance
Our model fair41.9%58.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+13942%————
OTTOttawa Senators−13958%————
SpreadOTT by 0.7
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.7our margin————
OTTOttawa Senators−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Ottawa Senators by 0.7 expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 7 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 3%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 7%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 22%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 18%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 12%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 15%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 4%Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: 1%Ottawa Senators by 7 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins byOTT wins by →
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more41%
Ottawa Senators wins by 3 or more29%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .907 save %, 2.39 GAAstarted
OTTLeevi Merilainen G · last 5 starts: .872 save %, 3.63 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·OTT
Dec 28, 2025 vs NYI
last game
Dec 27, 2025 at TOR
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 37+ games
CBJ·OTT
−0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.0
goals / game
3.4
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.2
16−21
season record
18−19
8−9
home record
8−9
8−12
away record
10−10
W2
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
5−5
30.3
shots / game
27.9
50.7
faceoff %
56.1
18.6
hits / game
23.9
14.2
blocked shots / game
13.6
4.9
takeaways / game
4.9
16.2
giveaways / game
14.3

Rating Trend

CBJ · OTT · 73 days
Columbus Blue JacketsOttawa Senators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OTT 7−3
Dec 11, 2025at CBJOTT 6 − 3
Apr 8, 2025at CBJCBJ 5 − 2
Apr 6, 2025at OTTOTT 4 − 0
Mar 29, 2025at OTTOTT 3 − 2
Mar 14, 2024at CBJOTT 3 − 2 SO
Feb 13, 2024at OTTOTT 6 − 3
Dec 1, 2023at CBJCBJ 4 − 2
Apr 2, 2023at CBJCBJ 4 − 3 OT
Mar 4, 2023at OTTOTT 5 − 2
Jan 3, 2023at OTTOTT 4 − 0

CBJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Dec 28, 2025vs NYI4 − 2W
Dec 22, 2025at LA3 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025vs MIN2 − 5L
Dec 16, 2025vs ANA4 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025vs VGK2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025vs OTT3 − 6L
Dec 9, 2025at CAR1 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at WSH0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025at FLA6 − 7L

OTT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 27, 2025at TOR5 − 7L
Dec 23, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 21, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHI6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025at WPG3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at CBJ6 − 3W
Dec 9, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs STL1 − 2L