bayesRatings

Sabres at Senators

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 6:00 PM CT · Canadian Tire Centre · Final BUF 3 – OTT 2
← NHL / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
BUF11013
OTT11002
Team box
BUF·OTT
25
shots
26
0 of 1
power play
1 of 3
43.8
faceoff %
56.3
15
hits
19
16
blocked shots
9
8
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Bowen ByramBUF212
Tim StutzleOTT103
Noah OstlundBUF102
Ridly GreigOTT101
Jordan GreenwayBUF014
Drake BathersonOTT014
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Alex LyonBUF2624.923
Linus UllmarkOTT2522.880

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OTT +3
BUF +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: OTT 0 · BUF 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BUF 44%, OTT 56% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
OTT by 0.6
Expected score
OTT 3.5 – 3.0 BUF
Expected total
6.5
SabresThe matchupSenators
+130Our fair odds−130
3.0Expected goals3.5
−0.07Power rating+0.02
3.1Goals / game3.3
3.3Allowed / game3.1
28.3Shots / game27.9
43.9Faceoff %56.0
19.1Hits / game23.9
17−18Season record18−17
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BUF chance · OTT chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BUFBuffalo Sabres+13044%————
OTTOttawa Senators−13056%————
SpreadOTT by 0.6
BUFBuffalo Sabres+0.6our margin————
OTTOttawa Senators−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Ottawa Senators by 0.6 expected
Buffalo Sabres by 7 goals: <1%Buffalo Sabres by 6 goals: <1%Buffalo Sabres by 5 goals: 1%Buffalo Sabres by 4 goals: 4%Buffalo Sabres by 3 goals: 8%Buffalo Sabres by 2 goals: 7%Buffalo Sabres by 1 goal: 22%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 18%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 11%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 15%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 8%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 3%Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: 1%Ottawa Senators by 7 goals: <1%
← BUF wins byOTT wins by →
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more39%
Ottawa Senators wins by 3 or more28%
Buffalo Sabres wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
BUFAlex Lyon G · last 5 starts: .922 save %, 2.31 GAAstarted
OTTLinus Ullmark G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.21 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BUF·OTT
Dec 21, 2025 at NJ
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
BUF·OTT
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.1
goals / game
3.3
3.3
goals allowed / game
3.1
17−18
season record
18−17
11−7
home record
8−8
6−11
away record
10−9
W6
streak
W4
7−3
last 10
6−4
28.3
shots / game
27.9
43.9
faceoff %
56.0
19.1
hits / game
23.9
15.3
blocked shots / game
14.0
5.2
takeaways / game
4.9
15.8
giveaways / game
14.3

Rating Trend

BUF · OTT · 70 days
Buffalo SabresOttawa Senators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · OTT 2−8
Oct 15, 2025at BUFBUF 8 − 4
Apr 1, 2025at OTTBUF 5 − 2
Mar 25, 2025at BUFBUF 3 − 2
Jan 9, 2025at OTTBUF 4 − 0
Nov 5, 2024at BUFBUF 5 − 1
Mar 27, 2024at BUFOTT 6 − 2
Jan 11, 2024at BUFBUF 5 − 3
Dec 31, 2023at OTTOTT 5 − 1
Oct 24, 2023at OTTBUF 6 − 4
Apr 13, 2023at BUFBUF 4 − 3 OT

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W6
Dec 21, 2025at NJ3 − 1W
Dec 20, 2025vs NYI3 − 2W
Dec 18, 2025vs PHI5 − 3W
Dec 14, 2025at SEA3 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025at VAN3 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at EDM4 − 3W
Dec 8, 2025at CGY4 − 7L
Dec 5, 2025at WPG1 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025at PHI2 − 5L
Dec 1, 2025vs WPG5 − 1W

OTT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Dec 21, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHI6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025at WPG3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at CBJ6 − 3W
Dec 9, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs STL1 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs NYR2 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at MTL5 − 2W