bayesRatings

Senators at Bruins

NHL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 6:00 PM CT · TD Garden · Final OTT 6 – BOS 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
OTT3306
BOS1102
Team box
OTT·BOS
28
shots
20
2 of 4
power play
1 of 5
50.8
faceoff %
49.2
22
hits
32
17
blocked shots
11
54
penalty minutes
42
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Linus UllmarkOTT2018.900
Jeremy SwaymanBOS1110.909
Joonas KorpisaloBOS1712.706

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BOS +4
OTT +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: BOS 0 · OTT 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OTT 46%, BOS 54% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
BOS 3.2 – 3.1 OTT
Expected total
6.3
SenatorsThe matchupBruins
+116Our fair odds−116
3.1Expected goals3.2
−0.03Power rating−0.04
3.3Goals / game3.3
3.2Allowed / game3.2
27.9Shots / game27.4
56.2Faceoff %51.8
23.9Hits / game24.5
17−17Season record20−16
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · BOS chance
Our model fair46.2%53.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+11646%————
BOSBoston Bruins−11654%————
Spreadabout even
OTTOttawa Senators+0.1our margin————
BOSBoston Bruins−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 5%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 11%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 18%Boston Bruins by 1 goal: 24%Boston Bruins by 2 goals: 10%Boston Bruins by 3 goals: 11%Boston Bruins by 4 goals: 6%Boston Bruins by 5 goals: 2%Boston Bruins by 6 goals: <1%
← OTT wins byBOS wins by →
Boston Bruins wins by 2 or more30%
Boston Bruins wins by 3 or more20%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
OTTLinus Ullmark G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 2.22 GAAstarted
BOSJeremy Swayman G · last 5 starts: .873 save %, 3.17 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·BOS
Dec 20, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Dec 20, 2025 vs VAN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
OTT·BOS
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
3.3
goals / game
3.3
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.2
17−17
season record
20−16
8−8
home record
12−7
9−9
away record
8−9
W3
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
27.9
shots / game
27.4
56.2
faceoff %
51.8
23.9
hits / game
24.5
13.9
blocked shots / game
16.2
4.9
takeaways / game
4.8
14.1
giveaways / game
16.1

Rating Trend

OTT · BOS · 68 days
Ottawa SenatorsBoston Bruins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BOS 4−6
Nov 13, 2025at OTTOTT 5 − 3
Nov 6, 2025at BOSBOS 3 − 2 OT
Oct 27, 2025at OTTOTT 7 − 2
Mar 13, 2025at OTTOTT 6 − 3
Jan 23, 2025at BOSBOS 2 − 0
Jan 18, 2025at OTTOTT 6 − 5 SO
Nov 9, 2024at BOSOTT 3 − 2 OT
Apr 16, 2024at BOSOTT 3 − 1
Mar 19, 2024at BOSBOS 6 − 2
Jan 25, 2024at OTTBOS 3 − 2 OT

OTT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Dec 20, 2025vs CHI6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025at WPG3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at CBJ6 − 3W
Dec 9, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs STL1 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs NYR2 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at MTL5 − 2W
Nov 30, 2025at DAL1 − 6L

BOS · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Dec 20, 2025vs VAN4 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025vs EDM1 − 3L
Dec 16, 2025vs UTAH4 − 1W
Dec 14, 2025at MIN2 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025at WPG6 − 3W
Dec 9, 2025at STL5 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025vs NJ4 − 1W
Dec 4, 2025vs STL5 − 2W
Dec 2, 2025at DET4 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025vs DET3 − 2W