bayesRatings

Blackhawks at Senators

NHL · Saturday, Dec 20 · 2:00 PM CT · Canadian Tire Centre · Final CHI 4 – OTT 6
← NHL / Dec 20, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CHI0314
OTT1236
Team box
CHI·OTT
24
shots
40
1 of 3
power play
1 of 6
40.3
faceoff %
59.7
21
hits
29
17
blocked shots
8
26
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Tim StutzleOTT121
Brady TkachukOTT2010
Ilya MikheyevCHI202
David PerronOTT202
Fabian ZetterlundOTT116
Ryan GreeneCHI022
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Arvid SoderblomCHI4034.850
Leevi MerilainenOTT2420.833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
OTT +3
CHI +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: OTT 2 · CHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 39%, OTT 61% · Updated Dec 20, 2025

Expected margin
OTT by 0.7
Expected score
OTT 3.5 – 2.8 CHI
Expected total
6.2
BlackhawksThe matchupSenators
+156Our fair odds−156
2.8Expected goals3.5
−0.31Power rating−0.03
2.8Goals / game3.2
3.1Allowed / game3.2
25.2Shots / game27.5
46.1Faceoff %56.1
17.3Hits / game23.8
13−21Season record16−17
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · OTT chance
Our model fair39.1%60.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Blackhawks+15639%————
OTTOttawa Senators−15661%————
SpreadOTT by 0.7
CHIChicago Blackhawks+0.7our margin————
OTTOttawa Senators−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Ottawa Senators by 0.7 expected
Chicago Blackhawks by 6 goals: <1%Chicago Blackhawks by 5 goals: 1%Chicago Blackhawks by 4 goals: 3%Chicago Blackhawks by 3 goals: 8%Chicago Blackhawks by 2 goals: 7%Chicago Blackhawks by 1 goal: 19%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 22%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 12%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 15%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 8%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 3%Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: 1%
← CHI wins byOTT wins by →
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more39%
Ottawa Senators wins by 3 or more28%
Chicago Blackhawks wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CHIArvid Soderblom G · last 5 starts: .841 save %, 5.04 GAAstarted
OTTLeevi Merilainen G · last 5 starts: .881 save %, 3.09 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·OTT
Dec 18, 2025 at MTL
last game
Dec 18, 2025 vs PIT
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
CHI·OTT
−0.31
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
2.8
goals / game
3.2
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.2
13−21
season record
16−17
7−9
home record
7−8
6−12
away record
9−9
L4
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
4−6
25.2
shots / game
27.5
46.1
faceoff %
56.1
17.3
hits / game
23.8
12.4
blocked shots / game
14.1
5.2
takeaways / game
4.9
16.5
giveaways / game
14.3

Rating Trend

CHI · OTT · 67 days
Chicago BlackhawksOttawa Senators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · OTT 2−7
Oct 28, 2025at CHICHI 7 − 3
Apr 15, 2025at OTTCHI 4 − 3 OT
Mar 5, 2025at CHIOTT 4 − 3 OT
Mar 28, 2024at OTTOTT 2 − 0
Feb 17, 2024at CHICHI 3 − 2
Mar 6, 2023at CHICHI 5 − 0
Feb 17, 2023at OTTCHI 4 − 3 OT
Mar 12, 2022at OTTCHI 6 − 3
Nov 1, 2021at CHICHI 5 − 1

CHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Dec 18, 2025at MTL1 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025at TOR2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs DET0 − 4L
Dec 12, 2025at STL2 − 3L
Dec 10, 2025vs NYR3 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025at ANA1 − 7L
Dec 6, 2025at LA0 − 6L
Dec 4, 2025at LA2 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at VGK3 − 4L
Nov 30, 2025vs ANA5 − 3W

OTT · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Dec 18, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025at WPG3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at CBJ6 − 3W
Dec 9, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs STL1 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs NYR2 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at MTL5 − 2W
Nov 30, 2025at DAL1 − 6L
Nov 28, 2025at STL3 − 4L