bayesRatings

Senators at Maple Leafs

NHL · Saturday, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final OTT 5 – TOR 7
← NHL / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
OTT1135
TOR2327
Team box
OTT·TOR
31
shots
33
0 of 1
power play
2 of 3
56.4
faceoff %
43.6
30
hits
32
6
blocked shots
7
8
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Matthew KniesTOR216
Auston MatthewsTOR129
Max DomiTOR031
Nick RobertsonTOR115
Jordan SpenceOTT113
Claude GirouxOTT023
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Leevi MerilainenOTT1816.889
Linus UllmarkOTT1410.714
Joseph WollTOR3126.839

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
OTT +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TOR 3 · OTT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OTT 46%, TOR 54% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TOR 3.3 – 3.1 OTT
Expected total
6.4
SenatorsThe matchupMaple Leafs
+117Our fair odds−117
3.1Expected goals3.3
+0.02Power rating+0.02
3.3Goals / game3.2
3.1Allowed / game3.4
27.9Shots / game27.0
56.0Faceoff %57.0
23.8Hits / game23.8
18−18Season record16−20
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OTT chance · TOR chance
Our model fair46.0%54.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OTTOttawa Senators+11746%————
TORToronto Maple Leafs−11754%————
Spreadabout even
OTTOttawa Senators+0.2our margin————
TORToronto Maple Leafs−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Ottawa Senators by 6 goals: <1%Ottawa Senators by 5 goals: 2%Ottawa Senators by 4 goals: 5%Ottawa Senators by 3 goals: 10%Ottawa Senators by 2 goals: 9%Ottawa Senators by 1 goal: 19%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 22%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 10%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 12%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 6%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 2%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: <1%
← OTT wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more32%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 3 or more22%
Ottawa Senators wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
OTTLeevi Merilainen G · last 5 starts: .876 save %, 3.30 GAAstarted
TORJoseph Woll G · last 5 starts: .928 save %, 2.16 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OTT·TOR
Dec 23, 2025 vs BUF
last game
Dec 23, 2025 vs PIT
3 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
OTT·TOR
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.3
goals / game
3.2
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.4
18−18
season record
16−20
8−9
home record
11−10
10−9
away record
5−10
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
4−6
27.9
shots / game
27.0
56.0
faceoff %
57.0
23.8
hits / game
23.8
13.8
blocked shots / game
15.6
4.9
takeaways / game
4.7
14.2
giveaways / game
17.2

Rating Trend

OTT · TOR · 71 days
Ottawa SenatorsToronto Maple Leafs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 4−6
May 1, 2025at OTTTOR 4 − 2post
Apr 29, 2025at TOROTT 4 − 0post
Apr 26, 2025at OTTOTT 4 − 3 OTpost
Apr 24, 2025at OTTTOR 3 − 2 OTpost
Apr 22, 2025at TORTOR 3 − 2 OTpost
Apr 20, 2025at TORTOR 6 − 2post
Mar 15, 2025at TOROTT 4 − 2
Jan 25, 2025at OTTOTT 2 − 1
Nov 12, 2024at TOROTT 3 − 0
Feb 10, 2024at OTTOTT 5 − 3

OTT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 23, 2025vs BUF2 − 3L
Dec 21, 2025at BOS6 − 2W
Dec 20, 2025vs CHI6 − 4W
Dec 18, 2025vs PIT4 − 0W
Dec 15, 2025at WPG3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at CBJ6 − 3W
Dec 9, 2025vs NJ3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs STL1 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs NYR2 − 4L

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Dec 23, 2025vs PIT6 − 3W
Dec 21, 2025at DAL1 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025at NSH3 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025at WSH0 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025vs EDM3 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025vs SJ2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025vs TB2 − 0W
Dec 6, 2025vs MTL1 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025at CAR5 − 1W