bayesRatings

Maple Leafs at Capitals

NHL · Thursday, Dec 18 · 6:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final TOR 0 – WSH 4
← NHL / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TOR0000
WSH2024
Team box
TOR·WSH
22
shots
29
0 of 5
power play
0 of 3
54.2
faceoff %
45.8
27
hits
13
13
blocked shots
12
6
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
John CarlsonWSH122
Jakob ChychrunWSH203
Justin SourdifWSH020
Aliaksei ProtasWSH102
Tom WilsonWSH015
Connor McMichaelWSH012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dennis HildebyTOR2925.862
Logan ThompsonWSH22221.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +4
TOR +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 4 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 42%, WSH 58% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 0.6
Expected score
WSH 3.4 – 2.8 TOR
Expected total
6.2
Maple LeafsThe matchupCapitals
+138Our fair odds−138
2.8Expected goals3.4
+0.07Power rating+0.22
3.3Goals / game3.2
3.2Allowed / game2.7
27.1Shots / game29.2
56.8Faceoff %47.9
23.9Hits / game19.9
15−17Season record18−15
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · WSH chance
Our model fair42.1%57.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Maple Leafs+13842%————
WSHWashington Capitals−13858%————
SpreadWSH by 0.6
TORToronto Maple Leafs+0.6our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Capitals by 0.6 expected
Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 4%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 8%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 8%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 21%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 20%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 15%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 8%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 3%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%
← TOR wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more38%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more27%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TORDennis Hildeby G · last 5 starts: .932 save %, 2.43 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .938 save %, 2.13 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·WSH
Dec 16, 2025 vs CHI
last game
Dec 16, 2025 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 32+ games
TOR·WSH
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
3.3
goals / game
3.2
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.7
15−17
season record
18−15
10−10
home record
10−7
5−7
away record
8−8
W1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
6−4
27.1
shots / game
29.2
56.8
faceoff %
47.9
23.9
hits / game
19.9
15.7
blocked shots / game
14.7
4.7
takeaways / game
4.6
16.9
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

TOR · WSH · 65 days
Toronto Maple LeafsWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 4−6
Nov 28, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 2
Dec 28, 2024at TORWSH 5 − 2
Dec 6, 2024at TORWSH 3 − 1
Nov 13, 2024at WSHTOR 4 − 3 OT
Mar 28, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 1
Mar 20, 2024at WSHTOR 7 − 3
Oct 24, 2023at WSHTOR 4 − 1
Jan 29, 2023at TORTOR 5 − 1
Dec 17, 2022at WSHWSH 5 − 2
Oct 13, 2022at TORTOR 3 − 2

TOR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 16, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025vs EDM3 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025vs SJ2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025vs TB2 − 0W
Dec 6, 2025vs MTL1 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025at CAR5 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at FLA4 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025at PIT7 − 2W
Nov 28, 2025at WSH2 − 4L
Nov 26, 2025at CBJ2 − 1W

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Dec 16, 2025at MIN0 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at WPG1 − 5L
Dec 11, 2025vs CAR2 − 3L
Dec 7, 2025vs CBJ2 − 0W
Dec 5, 2025at ANA3 − 4L
Dec 3, 2025at SJ7 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at LA3 − 1W
Nov 30, 2025at NYI4 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025vs TOR4 − 2W
Nov 26, 2025vs WPG4 − 3W