bayesRatings

Maple Leafs at Stars

NHL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 6:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final TOR 1 – DAL 5
← NHL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
TOR0011
DAL1045
Team box
TOR·DAL
28
shots
22
0 of 4
power play
0 of 3
60.9
faceoff %
39.1
24
hits
11
9
blocked shots
12
6
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jamie BennDAL114
Esa LindellDAL020
Scott LaughtonTOR105
Mavrik BourqueDAL104
Jason RobertsonDAL102
Justin HryckowianDAL102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Dennis HildebyTOR2117.810
Jake OettingerDAL2827.964

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +4
TOR +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: DAL 4 · TOR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 40%, DAL 60% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 0.6
Expected score
DAL 3.4 – 2.9 TOR
Expected total
6.3
Maple LeafsThe matchupStars
+148Our fair odds−148
2.9Expected goals3.4
+0.07Power rating+0.30
3.2Goals / game3.6
3.3Allowed / game2.7
26.8Shots / game25.2
56.8Faceoff %53.0
23.9Hits / game18.6
15−19Season record24−12
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · DAL chance
Our model fair40.2%59.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Maple Leafs+14840%————
DALDallas Stars−14860%————
SpreadDAL by 0.6
TORToronto Maple Leafs+0.6our margin————
DALDallas Stars−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Stars by 0.6 expected
Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: <1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 4%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 8%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 8%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 19%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 22%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 14%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 8%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 3%Dallas Stars by 6 goals: 1%
← TOR wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more38%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more26%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
TORDennis Hildeby G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 2.83 GAAstarted
DALJake Oettinger G · last 5 starts: .911 save %, 2.41 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·DAL
Dec 20, 2025 at NSH
last game
Dec 19, 2025 at ANA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 34+ games
TOR·DAL
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.30
3.2
goals / game
3.6
3.3
goals allowed / game
2.7
15−19
season record
24−12
10−10
home record
11−6
5−9
away record
13−6
L2
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
7−3
26.8
shots / game
25.2
56.8
faceoff %
53.0
23.9
hits / game
18.6
15.8
blocked shots / game
15.8
4.7
takeaways / game
4.7
16.9
giveaways / game
14.8

Rating Trend

TOR · DAL · 68 days
Toronto Maple LeafsDallas Stars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DAL 1−7
Jan 14, 2025at TORDAL 4 − 1
Dec 18, 2024at DALTOR 5 − 3
Feb 7, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 4
Oct 26, 2023at DALTOR 4 − 1
Dec 6, 2022at DALTOR 4 − 0
Oct 20, 2022at TORTOR 3 − 2 OT
Apr 7, 2022at DALTOR 4 − 3 OT
Mar 15, 2022at TORTOR 4 − 0

TOR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 20, 2025at NSH3 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025at WSH0 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025vs EDM3 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025vs SJ2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025vs TB2 − 0W
Dec 6, 2025vs MTL1 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025at CAR5 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at FLA4 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025at PIT7 − 2W

DAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Dec 19, 2025at ANA8 − 3W
Dec 18, 2025at SJ5 − 3W
Dec 15, 2025vs LA4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025vs FLA0 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025at MIN2 − 5L
Dec 9, 2025at WPG4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT3 − 2W
Dec 5, 2025vs SJ4 − 1W
Dec 3, 2025at NJ3 − 0W
Dec 2, 2025at NYR2 − 3L