bayesRatings

Kings at Stars

NHL · Monday, Dec 15 · 7:00 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final LA 1 – DAL 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
LA0101
DAL0134
Team box
LA·DAL
28
shots
26
1 of 3
power play
0 of 2
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
30
hits
19
15
blocked shots
18
6
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anton ForsbergLA2017.850
Darcy KuemperLA551.000
Casey DeSmithDAL2827.964

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +3
LA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: DAL 3 · LA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 40%, DAL 60% · Updated Dec 15, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DAL 3.1 – 2.7 LA
Expected total
5.8
KingsThe matchupStars
+147Our fair odds−147
2.7Expected goals3.1
+0.13Power rating+0.34
2.7Goals / game3.4
2.6Allowed / game2.7
28.3Shots / game25.1
49.6Faceoff %52.9
16.9Hits / game19.0
14−17Season record21−12
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · DAL chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+14740%————
DALDallas Stars−14760%————
Spreadabout even
LALos Angeles Kings+0.4our margin————
DALDallas Stars−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 4%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 9%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 9%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 17%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 27%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 13%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 6%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 2%Dallas Stars by 6 goals: <1%
← LA wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more33%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more22%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .898 save %, 2.34 GAAstarted
DALCasey DeSmith G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 2.17 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·DAL
Dec 13, 2025 vs CGY
last game
Dec 13, 2025 vs FLA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
LA·DAL
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
2.7
goals / game
3.4
2.6
goals allowed / game
2.7
14−17
season record
21−12
4−10
home record
10−6
10−7
away record
11−6
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
7−3
28.3
shots / game
25.1
49.6
faceoff %
52.9
16.9
hits / game
19.0
13.6
blocked shots / game
15.5
4.3
takeaways / game
4.7
16.6
giveaways / game
14.5

Rating Trend

LA · DAL · 62 days
Los Angeles KingsDallas Stars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DAL 6−4
Oct 23, 2025at DALLA 3 − 2 OT
Feb 28, 2025at DALDAL 6 − 2
Feb 7, 2025at LALA 5 − 4 SO
Dec 4, 2024at LALA 3 − 2
Mar 16, 2024at DALDAL 4 − 1
Mar 9, 2024at LADAL 4 − 1
Jan 16, 2024at DALDAL 5 − 1
Jan 19, 2023at LADAL 4 − 0
Jan 3, 2023at LALA 3 − 2
Nov 1, 2022at DALDAL 5 − 2

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 13, 2025vs CGY1 − 2L
Dec 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025at UTAH4 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025vs CHI6 − 0W
Dec 4, 2025vs CHI1 − 2L
Dec 2, 2025vs WSH1 − 3L
Nov 29, 2025vs VAN2 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025at ANA4 − 5L
Nov 24, 2025vs OTT2 − 1W
Nov 21, 2025vs BOS1 − 2L

DAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Dec 13, 2025vs FLA0 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025at MIN2 − 5L
Dec 9, 2025at WPG4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT3 − 2W
Dec 5, 2025vs SJ4 − 1W
Dec 3, 2025at NJ3 − 0W
Dec 2, 2025at NYR2 − 3L
Nov 30, 2025vs OTT6 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025vs UTAH4 − 3W
Nov 26, 2025at SEA3 − 2W