bayesRatings

Stars at Kraken

NHL · Wednesday, Nov 26 · 9:00 PM CT · Climate Pledge Arena · Final DAL 3 – SEA 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DAL1113
SEA1012
Team box
DAL·SEA
21
shots
28
0 of 1
power play
0 of 5
51.1
faceoff %
48.9
17
hits
23
13
blocked shots
8
12
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Casey DeSmithDAL2826.929
Joey DaccordSEA2118.857

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
DAL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: SEA 0 · DAL 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 51%, SEA 49% · Updated Nov 26, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DAL 3.0 – 2.6 SEA
Expected total
5.6
StarsThe matchupKraken
−106Our fair odds+106
3.0Expected goals2.6
+0.22Power rating−0.07
3.5Goals / game2.6
2.8Allowed / game2.7
26.1Shots / game24.1
53.8Faceoff %45.2
20.6Hits / game18.6
14−9Season record11−11
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · SEA chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Stars−10651%————
SEASeattle Kraken+10649%————
Spreadabout even
DALDallas Stars−0.4our margin————
SEASeattle Kraken+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Dallas Stars by 6 goals: <1%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 2%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 7%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 14%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 18%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 26%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 8%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 8%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 3%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 1%Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%
← DAL wins bySEA wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more35%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more24%
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DALCasey DeSmith G · last 5 starts: .937 save %, 1.72 GAAstarted
SEAJoey Daccord G · last 5 starts: .918 save %, 2.30 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·SEA
Nov 25, 2025 at EDM
last game
Nov 23, 2025 at NYI
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
DAL·SEA
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.5
goals / game
2.6
2.8
goals allowed / game
2.7
14−9
season record
11−11
6−5
home record
6−4
8−4
away record
5−7
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
5−5
26.1
shots / game
24.1
53.8
faceoff %
45.2
20.6
hits / game
18.6
15.6
blocked shots / game
16.2
4.0
takeaways / game
4.5
14.3
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

DAL · SEA · 44 days
Dallas StarsSeattle Kraken
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 1−9
Nov 9, 2025at DALDAL 2 − 1
Mar 31, 2025at SEADAL 3 − 1
Mar 29, 2025at SEADAL 5 − 1
Oct 13, 2024at DALDAL 2 − 0
Apr 13, 2024at DALDAL 3 − 1
Mar 30, 2024at SEADAL 3 − 0
Dec 18, 2023at DALDAL 4 − 3 OT
May 15, 2023at DALDAL 2 − 1post
May 13, 2023at SEASEA 6 − 3post
May 11, 2023at DALDAL 5 − 2post

DAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Nov 25, 2025at EDM8 − 3W
Nov 22, 2025at CGY2 − 3L
Nov 20, 2025at VAN4 − 2W
Nov 18, 2025vs NYI2 − 3L
Nov 15, 2025vs PHI5 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025at MTL7 − 0W
Nov 11, 2025at OTT3 − 2W
Nov 9, 2025vs SEA2 − 1W
Nov 8, 2025at NSH5 − 4W
Nov 6, 2025vs ANA5 − 7L

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 23, 2025at NYI0 − 1L
Nov 22, 2025at PIT3 − 2W
Nov 20, 2025at CHI3 − 2W
Nov 18, 2025at DET2 − 4L
Nov 15, 2025vs SJ4 − 1W
Nov 13, 2025vs WPG5 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs CBJ1 − 2L
Nov 9, 2025at DAL1 − 2L
Nov 8, 2025at STL4 − 3W
Nov 5, 2025vs SJ1 − 6L