bayesRatings

Stars at Jets

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 9 · 7:00 PM CT · Canada Life Centre · Final DAL 4 – WPG 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DAL1214
WPG0213
Team box
DAL·WPG
19
shots
33
2 of 4
power play
0 of 4
61.8
faceoff %
38.2
8
hits
32
15
blocked shots
10
8
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Casey DeSmithDAL3330.909
Eric ComrieWPG1915.789

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WPG +3
DAL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WPG 0 · DAL 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 50%, WPG 50% · Updated Dec 9, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DAL 2.8 – 2.7 WPG
Expected total
5.5
StarsThe matchupJets
−100Our fair odds+100
2.8Expected goals2.7
+0.34Power rating+0.16
3.5Goals / game3.0
2.6Allowed / game3.0
25.9Shots / game26.2
52.8Faceoff %52.0
19.8Hits / game22.9
20−10Season record14−14
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · WPG chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Stars−10050%————
WPGWinnipeg Jets+10050%————
Spreadabout even
DALDallas Stars−0.1our margin————
WPGWinnipeg Jets+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.5
Over5.5our total————
Under5.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 2%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 5%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 10%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 21%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 24%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 9%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 10%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 4%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 1%
← DAL wins byWPG wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more30%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more19%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.5 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 16%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.568%
Total over 5.544%
Total over 6.533%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DALCasey DeSmith G · last 5 starts: .944 save %, 1.58 GAAstarted
WPGEric Comrie G · last 5 starts: .922 save %, 2.38 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·WPG
Dec 7, 2025 vs PIT
last game
Dec 6, 2025 at EDM
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
DAL·WPG
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.16
3.5
goals / game
3.0
2.6
goals allowed / game
3.0
20−10
season record
14−14
10−5
home record
7−5
10−5
away record
7−9
W3
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
3−7
25.9
shots / game
26.2
52.8
faceoff %
52.0
19.8
hits / game
22.9
15.4
blocked shots / game
15.5
4.5
takeaways / game
4.1
14.4
giveaways / game
15.1

Rating Trend

DAL · WPG · 56 days
Dallas StarsWinnipeg Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WPG 4−6
Oct 9, 2025at WPGDAL 5 − 4
May 17, 2025at DALDAL 2 − 1 OTpost
May 15, 2025at WPGWPG 4 − 0post
May 13, 2025at DALDAL 3 − 1post
May 11, 2025at DALDAL 5 − 2post
May 9, 2025at WPGWPG 4 − 0post
May 7, 2025at WPGDAL 3 − 2post
Apr 10, 2025at DALWPG 4 − 0
Mar 14, 2025at WPGWPG 4 − 1
Dec 1, 2024at DALDAL 3 − 1

DAL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT3 − 2W
Dec 5, 2025vs SJ4 − 1W
Dec 3, 2025at NJ3 − 0W
Dec 2, 2025at NYR2 − 3L
Nov 30, 2025vs OTT6 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025vs UTAH4 − 3W
Nov 26, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Nov 25, 2025at EDM8 − 3W
Nov 22, 2025at CGY2 − 3L
Nov 20, 2025at VAN4 − 2W

WPG · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 6, 2025at EDM2 − 6L
Dec 5, 2025vs BUF4 − 1W
Dec 3, 2025at MTL2 − 3L
Dec 1, 2025at BUF1 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025at NSH5 − 2W
Nov 28, 2025at CAR1 − 5L
Nov 26, 2025at WSH3 − 4L
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN0 − 3L
Nov 21, 2025vs CAR3 − 4L
Nov 18, 2025vs CBJ5 − 2W