bayesRatings

Jets at Hurricanes

NHL · Friday, Nov 28 · 4:00 PM CT · Lenovo Center · Final WPG 1 – CAR 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WPG0101
CAR1045
Team box
WPG·CAR
13
shots
35
0 of 2
power play
0 of 4
54.7
faceoff %
45.3
32
hits
13
17
blocked shots
14
12
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Thomas MilicWPG3430.882
Brandon BussiCAR1312.923

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +4
WPG +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: CAR 4 · WPG 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WPG 44%, CAR 56% · Updated Nov 28, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CAR 3.0 – 3.0 WPG
Expected total
6.0
JetsThe matchupHurricanes
+130Our fair odds−130
3.0Expected goals3.0
+0.22Power rating+0.25
3.2Goals / game3.5
2.9Allowed / game3.0
27.0Shots / game33.9
52.9Faceoff %50.0
20.7Hits / game19.1
12−10Season record14−9
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WPG chance · CAR chance
Our model fair43.5%56.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WPGWinnipeg Jets+13044%————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−13056%————
Spreadabout even
WPGWinnipeg Jets+0.1our margin————
CARCarolina Hurricanes−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: <1%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 2%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 5%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 11%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 10%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 16%Carolina Hurricanes by 1 goal: 27%Carolina Hurricanes by 2 goals: 10%Carolina Hurricanes by 3 goals: 11%Carolina Hurricanes by 4 goals: 5%Carolina Hurricanes by 5 goals: 2%Carolina Hurricanes by 6 goals: <1%
← WPG wins byCAR wins by →
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 2 or more28%
Carolina Hurricanes wins by 3 or more19%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.542%
Total over 7.523%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WPGThomas Milic G · no recent starts on recordstarted
CARBrandon Bussi G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 3.00 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WPG·CAR
Nov 26, 2025 at WSH
last game
Nov 26, 2025 vs NYR
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 22+ games
WPG·CAR
+0.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
3.2
goals / game
3.5
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.0
12−10
season record
14−9
6−5
home record
6−4
6−5
away record
8−5
L3
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
5−5
27.0
shots / game
33.9
52.9
faceoff %
50.0
20.7
hits / game
19.1
16.2
blocked shots / game
11.4
4.2
takeaways / game
5.4
14.8
giveaways / game
17.4

Rating Trend

WPG · CAR · 45 days
Winnipeg JetsCarolina Hurricanes
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CAR 5−4
Nov 21, 2025at WPGCAR 4 − 3
Mar 9, 2025at CARCAR 4 − 2
Feb 4, 2025at WPGWPG 3 − 0
Mar 2, 2024at CARWPG 5 − 3
Dec 4, 2023at WPGWPG 2 − 1
Mar 14, 2023at CARCAR 5 − 3
Nov 21, 2022at WPGWPG 4 − 3 OT
Apr 21, 2022at CARCAR 4 − 2
Dec 7, 2021at WPGCAR 4 − 2

WPG · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Nov 26, 2025at WSH3 − 4L
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN0 − 3L
Nov 21, 2025vs CAR3 − 4L
Nov 18, 2025vs CBJ5 − 2W
Nov 15, 2025at CGY4 − 3W
Nov 13, 2025at SEA3 − 5L
Nov 11, 2025at VAN5 − 3W
Nov 9, 2025at ANA1 − 4L
Nov 7, 2025at SJ1 − 2L
Nov 4, 2025at LA0 − 3L

CAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 26, 2025vs NYR2 − 4L
Nov 23, 2025at BUF1 − 4L
Nov 21, 2025at WPG4 − 3W
Nov 19, 2025at MIN3 − 4L
Nov 17, 2025at BOS3 − 1W
Nov 15, 2025vs EDM3 − 4L
Nov 14, 2025vs VAN4 − 3W
Nov 11, 2025vs WSH1 − 4L
Nov 9, 2025at TOR5 − 4W
Nov 8, 2025vs BUF6 − 3W