bayesRatings

Penguins at Maple Leafs

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 3:00 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final PIT 3 – TOR 6
← NHL / Dec 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
PIT1113
TOR2136
Team box
PIT·TOR
32
shots
31
0 of 1
power play
0 of 2
41.4
faceoff %
58.6
16
hits
19
7
blocked shots
14
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
William NylanderTOR223
Max DomiTOR112
Bobby McMannTOR104
Bryan RustPIT103
Anthony ManthaPIT103
Rutger McGroartyPIT103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Stuart SkinnerPIT2925.862
Joseph WollTOR3229.906

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +3
PIT +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TOR 3 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 42%, TOR 58% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
TOR by 0.7
Expected score
TOR 3.6 – 2.9 PIT
Expected total
6.6
PenguinsThe matchupMaple Leafs
+137Our fair odds−137
2.9Expected goals3.6
−0.13Power rating+0.02
3.1Goals / game3.1
3.2Allowed / game3.4
28.5Shots / game26.9
50.2Faceoff %57.0
17.5Hits / game23.9
15−20Season record15−20
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · TOR chance
Our model fair42.2%57.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Penguins+13742%————
TORToronto Maple Leafs−13758%————
SpreadTOR by 0.7
PITPittsburgh Penguins+0.7our margin————
TORToronto Maple Leafs−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Toronto Maple Leafs by 0.7 expected
Pittsburgh Penguins by 7 goals: <1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 3%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 8%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 7%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 22%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 18%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 12%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 15%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 9%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 4%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: 1%Toronto Maple Leafs by 7 goals: <1%
← PIT wins byTOR wins by →
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more41%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 3 or more29%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.562%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PITStuart Skinner G · last 5 starts: .874 save %, 3.08 GAAstarted
TORJoseph Woll G · last 5 starts: .929 save %, 2.17 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·TOR
Dec 21, 2025 vs MTL
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at DAL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
PIT·TOR
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.1
goals / game
3.1
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.4
15−20
season record
15−20
7−11
home record
10−10
8−9
away record
5−10
W1
streak
L3
2−8
last 10
4−6
28.5
shots / game
26.9
50.2
faceoff %
57.0
17.5
hits / game
23.9
15.3
blocked shots / game
15.6
4.6
takeaways / game
4.6
16.3
giveaways / game
17.1

Rating Trend

PIT · TOR · 70 days
Pittsburgh PenguinsToronto Maple Leafs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 8−2
Nov 29, 2025at PITTOR 7 − 2
Nov 3, 2025at TORTOR 4 − 3
Mar 2, 2025at PITTOR 6 − 5 OT
Dec 7, 2024at PITPIT 5 − 2
Oct 12, 2024at TORTOR 4 − 2
Apr 8, 2024at TORTOR 3 − 2 OT
Dec 16, 2023at TORTOR 7 − 0
Nov 25, 2023at PITPIT 3 − 2
Nov 26, 2022at PITTOR 4 − 1
Nov 15, 2022at PITTOR 5 − 2

PIT · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Dec 21, 2025vs MTL4 − 3W
Dec 20, 2025at MTL0 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025at OTT0 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs EDM4 − 6L
Dec 14, 2025vs UTAH4 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025vs SJ5 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025vs MTL2 − 4L
Dec 9, 2025vs ANA3 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at DAL2 − 3L
Dec 4, 2025at TB4 − 3W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 21, 2025at DAL1 − 5L
Dec 20, 2025at NSH3 − 5L
Dec 18, 2025at WSH0 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs CHI3 − 2W
Dec 13, 2025vs EDM3 − 6L
Dec 11, 2025vs SJ2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025vs TB2 − 0W
Dec 6, 2025vs MTL1 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025at CAR5 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025at FLA4 − 1W