bayesRatings

Sharks at Ducks

NHL · Monday, Dec 29 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final SJ 5 – ANA 4
← NHL / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SJ2215
ANA1124
Team box
SJ·ANA
13
shots
42
0 of 2
power play
0 of 3
44.8
faceoff %
55.2
17
hits
18
19
blocked shots
11
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Troy TerryANA213
Macklin CelebriniSJ121
Cutter GauthierANA119
Alexander WennbergSJ020
Pavel MintyukovANA103
Mario FerraroSJ102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Yaroslav AskarovSJ4238.905
Lukas DostalANA95.556
Petr MrazekANA43.750

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
SJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 0 · SJ 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SJ 38%, ANA 62% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
ANA by 0.9
Expected score
ANA 4.0 – 3.0 SJ
Expected total
7.0
SharksThe matchupDucks
+165Our fair odds−165
3.0Expected goals4.0
−0.46Power rating−0.12
3.0Goals / game3.4
3.5Allowed / game3.5
25.3Shots / game30.7
47.1Faceoff %46.1
20.7Hits / game20.4
18−20Season record21−17
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SJ chance · ANA chance
Our model fair37.8%62.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SJSan Jose Sharks+16538%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−16562%————
SpreadANA by 0.9
SJSan Jose Sharks+0.9our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.0
Over7.0our total————
Under7.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Anaheim Ducks by 0.9 expected
San Jose Sharks by 7 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 6 goals: <1%San Jose Sharks by 5 goals: 1%San Jose Sharks by 4 goals: 3%San Jose Sharks by 3 goals: 7%San Jose Sharks by 2 goals: 7%San Jose Sharks by 1 goal: 19%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 19%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 12%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 16%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 10%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%
← SJ wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more44%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more32%
San Jose Sharks wins by 2 or more19%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.0 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 17%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: <1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.557%
Total over 7.538%
Total over 8.528%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SJYaroslav Askarov G · last 5 starts: .890 save %, 3.41 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .879 save %, 3.04 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SJ·ANA
Dec 27, 2025 at VAN
last game
Dec 27, 2025 at LA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 38+ games
SJ·ANA
−0.46
rating (0 = average)
−0.12
3.0
goals / game
3.4
3.5
goals allowed / game
3.5
18−20
season record
21−17
10−10
home record
12−6
8−10
away record
9−11
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
4−6
25.3
shots / game
30.7
47.1
faceoff %
46.1
20.7
hits / game
20.4
15.5
blocked shots / game
15.2
4.4
takeaways / game
4.8
15.3
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

SJ · ANA · 73 days
San Jose SharksAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 8−2
Oct 11, 2025at SJANA 7 − 6 OT
Apr 1, 2025at ANAANA 4 − 3 SO
Oct 22, 2024at ANAANA 3 − 1
Oct 12, 2024at SJANA 2 − 0
Feb 29, 2024at SJANA 6 − 4
Jan 31, 2024at ANAANA 3 − 2 OT
Jan 20, 2024at SJSJ 5 − 3
Nov 12, 2023at ANAANA 4 − 1
Jan 6, 2023at ANAANA 5 − 4 OT
Dec 9, 2022at ANASJ 6 − 1

SJ · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 27, 2025at VAN6 − 3W
Dec 23, 2025at VGK2 − 7L
Dec 20, 2025vs SEA2 − 4L
Dec 18, 2025vs DAL3 − 5L
Dec 16, 2025vs CGY6 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025at PIT6 − 5W
Dec 11, 2025at TOR3 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at PHI1 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at CAR4 − 1W
Dec 5, 2025at DAL1 − 4L

ANA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 27, 2025at LA1 − 6L
Dec 22, 2025vs SEA1 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025vs CBJ4 − 3W
Dec 19, 2025vs DAL3 − 8L
Dec 16, 2025at CBJ3 − 4L
Dec 15, 2025at NYR4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025at NJ1 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025at NYI2 − 5L
Dec 9, 2025at PIT4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI7 − 1W