bayesRatings

Ducks at Kings

NHL · Saturday, Dec 27 · 8:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final ANA 1 – LA 6
← NHL / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA0101
LA4026
Team box
ANA·LA
26
shots
30
1 of 2
power play
1 of 4
55.1
faceoff %
44.9
16
hits
12
13
blocked shots
16
12
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Alex LaferriereLA305
Anze KopitarLA031
Quinton ByfieldLA113
Brandt ClarkeLA021
Brian DumoulinLA020
Trevor MooreLA103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA3024.800
Anton ForsbergLA2625.962

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +5
ANA +5
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 5 · ANA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 42%, LA 58% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
LA by 0.5
Expected score
LA 3.0 – 2.5 ANA
Expected total
5.6
DucksThe matchupKings
+141Our fair odds−141
2.5Expected goals3.0
−0.12Power rating+0.06
3.5Goals / game2.5
3.4Allowed / game2.7
30.9Shots / game28.2
45.9Faceoff %49.6
20.5Hits / game17.6
21−16Season record15−21
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · LA chance
Our model fair41.5%58.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+14142%————
LALos Angeles Kings−14158%————
SpreadLA by 0.5
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.5our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Kings by 0.5 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 21%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 23%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 11%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 14%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 7%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byLA wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more35%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more24%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .905 save %, 2.40 GAAstarted
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .910 save %, 2.80 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·LA
Dec 22, 2025 vs SEA
last game
Dec 23, 2025 vs SEA
4 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 36+ games
ANA·LA
−0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.5
goals / game
2.5
3.4
goals allowed / game
2.7
21−16
season record
15−21
12−6
home record
4−12
9−10
away record
11−9
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
30.9
shots / game
28.2
45.9
faceoff %
49.6
20.5
hits / game
17.6
15.2
blocked shots / game
13.6
4.9
takeaways / game
4.5
15.2
giveaways / game
16.6

Rating Trend

ANA · LA · 71 days
Anaheim DucksLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LA 7−3
Nov 28, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 4 SO
Apr 10, 2025at LALA 6 − 1
Feb 8, 2025at LAANA 2 − 1 SO
Nov 29, 2024at ANALA 2 − 1
Oct 20, 2024at ANALA 4 − 1
Apr 13, 2024at LALA 3 − 1
Apr 9, 2024at ANAANA 3 − 1
Feb 24, 2024at LALA 3 − 2 SO
Nov 24, 2023at ANALA 5 − 2
Apr 13, 2023at ANALA 5 − 3

ANA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 22, 2025vs SEA1 − 3L
Dec 20, 2025vs CBJ4 − 3W
Dec 19, 2025vs DAL3 − 8L
Dec 16, 2025at CBJ3 − 4L
Dec 15, 2025at NYR4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025at NJ1 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025at NYI2 − 5L
Dec 9, 2025at PIT4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI7 − 1W
Dec 5, 2025vs WSH4 − 3W

LA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Dec 23, 2025vs SEA2 − 3L
Dec 22, 2025vs CBJ1 − 3L
Dec 18, 2025at TB2 − 1W
Dec 17, 2025at FLA2 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025at DAL1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs CGY1 − 2L
Dec 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025at UTAH4 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025vs CHI6 − 0W
Dec 4, 2025vs CHI1 − 2L