bayesRatings

Kings at Lightning

NHL · Thursday, Dec 18 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final LA 2 – TB 1
← NHL / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
LA0202
TB1001
Team box
LA·TB
20
shots
32
0 of 1
power play
1 of 5
45.3
faceoff %
54.7
17
hits
18
22
blocked shots
7
20
penalty minutes
2
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Adrian KempeLA202
Oliver BjorkstrandTB105
Jake GuentzelTB014
Corey PerryLA012
Anthony CirelliTB011
Anze KopitarLA010
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anton ForsbergLA3231.969
Andrei VasilevskiyTB2018.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +3
LA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 1 · LA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 43%, TB 57% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 3.0 – 2.5 LA
Expected total
5.6
KingsThe matchupLightning
+135Our fair odds−135
2.5Expected goals3.0
+0.08Power rating+0.22
2.6Goals / game3.2
2.7Allowed / game2.7
28.3Shots / game27.8
49.7Faceoff %46.2
17.3Hits / game19.8
14−19Season record18−15
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · TB chance
Our model fair42.6%57.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+13543%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−13557%————
SpreadTB by 0.5
LALos Angeles Kings+0.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Lightning by 0.5 expected
Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 3%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 22%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 22%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 14%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 7%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: <1%
← LA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more36%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more24%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 2.71 GAAstarted
TBAndrei Vasilevskiy G · last 5 starts: .949 save %, 1.41 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·TB
Dec 17, 2025 at FLA
last game
Dec 15, 2025 vs FLA
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
LA·TB
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
2.6
goals / game
3.2
2.7
goals allowed / game
2.7
14−19
season record
18−15
4−10
home record
8−8
10−9
away record
10−7
L4
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
4−6
28.3
shots / game
27.8
49.7
faceoff %
46.2
17.3
hits / game
19.8
13.7
blocked shots / game
12.8
4.3
takeaways / game
4.2
16.6
giveaways / game
14.9

Rating Trend

LA · TB · 65 days
Los Angeles KingsTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TB 5−3
Jan 30, 2025at TBTB 3 − 0
Jan 4, 2025at LALA 2 − 1
Mar 23, 2024at LALA 4 − 3 OT
Jan 9, 2024at TBTB 3 − 2 OT
Jan 28, 2023at TBTB 5 − 2
Oct 25, 2022at LALA 4 − 2
Jan 18, 2022at LATB 6 − 4
Dec 14, 2021at TBTB 3 − 2 OT

LA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Dec 17, 2025at FLA2 − 3L
Dec 15, 2025at DAL1 − 4L
Dec 13, 2025vs CGY1 − 2L
Dec 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Dec 8, 2025at UTAH4 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025vs CHI6 − 0W
Dec 4, 2025vs CHI1 − 2L
Dec 2, 2025vs WSH1 − 3L
Nov 29, 2025vs VAN2 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025at ANA4 − 5L

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 15, 2025vs FLA2 − 5L
Dec 13, 2025at NYI2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at NJ8 − 4W
Dec 9, 2025at MTL6 − 1W
Dec 8, 2025at TOR0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025vs NYI0 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at NYI1 − 2L
Nov 29, 2025at NYR4 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025at DET6 − 3W