bayesRatings

Panthers at Lightning

NHL · Monday, Dec 15 · 6:00 PM CT · Benchmark International Arena · Final FLA 5 – TB 2
← NHL / Dec 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
FLA2215
TB0112
Team box
FLA·TB
24
shots
28
1 of 4
power play
0 of 5
46.8
faceoff %
53.2
25
hits
33
17
blocked shots
3
19
penalty minutes
17
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Sam ReinhartFLA206
Carter VerhaegheFLA113
Brayden PointTB022
Aaron EkbladFLA020
Uvis BalinskisFLA020
J.J. MoserTB102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Sergei BobrovskyFLA2826.929
Jonas JohanssonTB2419.792

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +4
FLA +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: TB 0 · FLA 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was FLA 45%, TB 55% · Updated Dec 15, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
TB 3.0 – 2.8 FLA
Expected total
5.8
PanthersThe matchupLightning
+123Our fair odds−123
2.8Expected goals3.0
+0.18Power rating+0.20
3.2Goals / game3.2
3.2Allowed / game2.6
29.3Shots / game27.8
47.1Faceoff %46.0
25.5Hits / game19.3
16−15Season record18−14
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
FLA chance · TB chance
Our model fair44.9%55.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
FLAFlorida Panthers+12345%————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−12355%————
Spreadabout even
FLAFlorida Panthers+0.3our margin————
TBTampa Bay Lightning−0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Florida Panthers by 6 goals: <1%Florida Panthers by 5 goals: 1%Florida Panthers by 4 goals: 4%Florida Panthers by 3 goals: 9%Florida Panthers by 2 goals: 9%Florida Panthers by 1 goal: 21%Tampa Bay Lightning by 1 goal: 23%Tampa Bay Lightning by 2 goals: 11%Tampa Bay Lightning by 3 goals: 12%Tampa Bay Lightning by 4 goals: 6%Tampa Bay Lightning by 5 goals: 2%Tampa Bay Lightning by 6 goals: <1%
← FLA wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 2 or more32%
Tampa Bay Lightning wins by 3 or more22%
Florida Panthers wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
FLASergei Bobrovsky G · last 5 starts: .896 save %, 2.73 GAAstarted
TBJonas Johansson G · last 5 starts: .927 save %, 1.81 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
FLA·TB
Dec 13, 2025 at DAL
last game
Dec 13, 2025 at NYI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 31+ games
FLA·TB
+0.18
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
3.2
goals / game
3.2
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.6
16−15
season record
18−14
10−8
home record
8−7
6−7
away record
10−7
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
29.3
shots / game
27.8
47.1
faceoff %
46.0
25.5
hits / game
19.3
13.0
blocked shots / game
13.2
4.1
takeaways / game
4.2
14.3
giveaways / game
15.0

Rating Trend

FLA · TB · 62 days
Florida PanthersTampa Bay Lightning
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TB 4−6
Nov 15, 2025at FLATB 3 − 1
Apr 30, 2025at TBFLA 6 − 3post
Apr 28, 2025at FLAFLA 4 − 2post
Apr 26, 2025at FLATB 5 − 1post
Apr 24, 2025at TBFLA 2 − 0post
Apr 22, 2025at TBFLA 6 − 2post
Apr 15, 2025at TBTB 5 − 1
Mar 3, 2025at FLAFLA 2 − 1
Dec 23, 2024at FLATB 4 − 0
Dec 22, 2024at TBFLA 4 − 2

FLA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 13, 2025at DAL4 − 0W
Dec 11, 2025at COL2 − 6L
Dec 10, 2025at UTAH4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs NYI4 − 1W
Dec 6, 2025vs CBJ7 − 6W
Dec 4, 2025vs NSH1 − 2L
Dec 2, 2025vs TOR1 − 4L
Nov 28, 2025vs CGY3 − 5L
Nov 26, 2025vs PHI2 − 4L
Nov 24, 2025at NSH8 − 3W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 13, 2025at NYI2 − 3L
Dec 11, 2025at NJ8 − 4W
Dec 9, 2025at MTL6 − 1W
Dec 8, 2025at TOR0 − 2L
Dec 6, 2025vs NYI0 − 2L
Dec 4, 2025vs PIT3 − 4L
Dec 2, 2025at NYI1 − 2L
Nov 29, 2025at NYR4 − 1W
Nov 28, 2025at DET6 − 3W
Nov 26, 2025vs CGY5 − 1W