bayesRatings

Kraken at Ducks

NHL · Monday, Dec 22 · 9:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final SEA 3 – ANA 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SEA0123
ANA0101
Team box
SEA·ANA
21
shots
41
1 of 3
power play
0 of 2
42.6
faceoff %
57.4
24
hits
24
13
blocked shots
12
16
penalty minutes
18
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Philipp GrubauerSEA4140.976
Lukas DostalANA2018.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
SEA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: ANA 0 · SEA 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 43%, ANA 57% · Updated Dec 22, 2025

Expected margin
ANA by 0.5
Expected score
ANA 3.5 – 3.0 SEA
Expected total
6.4
KrakenThe matchupDucks
+135Our fair odds−135
3.0Expected goals3.5
−0.21Power rating−0.08
2.5Goals / game3.6
3.2Allowed / game3.4
25.9Shots / game30.6
46.9Faceoff %45.6
18.9Hits / game20.4
13−20Season record21−15
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · ANA chance
Our model fair42.6%57.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Kraken+13543%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−13557%————
SpreadANA by 0.5
SEASeattle Kraken+0.5our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.4
Over6.4our total————
Under6.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Anaheim Ducks by 0.5 expected
Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 1%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 4%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 9%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 8%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 20%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 21%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 11%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 14%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 3%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: 1%
← SEA wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more37%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more26%
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more22%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.4 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.559%
Total over 6.548%
Total over 7.529%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SEAPhilipp Grubauer G · last 5 starts: .897 save %, 3.29 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .910 save %, 2.59 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·ANA
Dec 20, 2025 at SJ
last game
Dec 20, 2025 vs CBJ
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
SEA·ANA
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
2.5
goals / game
3.6
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.4
13−20
season record
21−15
7−10
home record
12−5
6−10
away record
9−10
W1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
25.9
shots / game
30.6
46.9
faceoff %
45.6
18.9
hits / game
20.4
16.2
blocked shots / game
15.3
4.6
takeaways / game
4.8
15.5
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

SEA · ANA · 69 days
Seattle KrakenAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 2−8
Oct 9, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 1
Jan 28, 2025at SEAANA 6 − 4
Nov 27, 2024at SEAANA 5 − 2
Nov 25, 2024at ANASEA 3 − 2
Apr 5, 2024at ANASEA 3 − 1
Mar 28, 2024at SEASEA 4 − 2
Mar 26, 2024at SEASEA 4 − 0
Dec 23, 2023at ANASEA 3 − 2
Mar 30, 2023at SEASEA 4 − 1
Mar 7, 2023at SEASEA 5 − 2

SEA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Dec 20, 2025at SJ4 − 2W
Dec 18, 2025at CGY2 − 4L
Dec 16, 2025vs COL3 − 5L
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF1 − 3L
Dec 12, 2025at UTAH3 − 5L
Dec 10, 2025vs LA3 − 2W
Dec 8, 2025vs MIN1 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025vs DET3 − 4L
Dec 4, 2025at EDM4 − 9L
Nov 29, 2025vs EDM0 − 4L

ANA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 20, 2025vs CBJ4 − 3W
Dec 19, 2025vs DAL3 − 8L
Dec 16, 2025at CBJ3 − 4L
Dec 15, 2025at NYR4 − 1W
Dec 13, 2025at NJ1 − 4L
Dec 11, 2025at NYI2 − 5L
Dec 9, 2025at PIT4 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI7 − 1W
Dec 5, 2025vs WSH4 − 3W
Dec 3, 2025vs UTAH0 − 7L