bayesRatings

Mammoth at Avalanche

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 23 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final UTAH 0 – COL 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
UTAH0000
COL0101
Team box
UTAH·COL
32
shots
26
0 of 3
power play
0 of 2
55.2
faceoff %
44.8
16
hits
20
19
blocked shots
21
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Samuel GirardCOL101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Vitek VanecekUTAH2625.962
Scott WedgewoodCOL32321.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
UTAH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 1 · UTAH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 28%, COL 72% · Updated Dec 23, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.5
Expected score
COL 4.0 – 2.5 UTAH
Expected total
6.6
MammothThe matchupAvalanche
+254Our fair odds−254
2.5Expected goals4.0
−0.03Power rating+0.75
3.1Goals / game4.0
2.9Allowed / game2.3
28.5Shots / game34.8
47.9Faceoff %50.6
18.6Hits / game17.7
18−20Season record26−9
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · COL chance
Our model fair28.3%71.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth+25428%————
COLColorado Avalanche−25472%————
SpreadCOL by 1.5
UTAHUtah Mammoth+1.5our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.6
Over6.6our total————
Under6.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.5 expected
Utah Mammoth by 8 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 7 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 1%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 5%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 5%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 20%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 6%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more53%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more40%
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more12%
Decided by one goal35%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.6 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.563%
Total over 6.551%
Total over 7.532%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
UTAHVitek Vanecek G · last 5 starts: .871 save %, 3.13 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .924 save %, 2.15 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·COL
Dec 21, 2025 vs WPG
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 35+ games
UTAH·COL
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.75
3.1
goals / game
4.0
2.9
goals allowed / game
2.3
18−20
season record
26−9
9−7
home record
14−2
9−13
away record
12−7
W1
streak
W5
5−5
last 10
8−2
28.5
shots / game
34.8
47.9
faceoff %
50.6
18.6
hits / game
17.7
14.1
blocked shots / game
13.9
3.9
takeaways / game
4.7
16.3
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

UTAH · COL · 70 days
Utah MammothColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 5 meetings · COL 3−2
Oct 21, 2025at UTAHUTAH 4 − 3 OT
Oct 9, 2025at COLCOL 2 − 1
Dec 27, 2024at UTAHCOL 4 − 1
Dec 12, 2024at COLUTAH 4 − 1
Oct 24, 2024at UTAHCOL 5 − 1

UTAH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 21, 2025vs WPG4 − 3W
Dec 19, 2025vs NJ1 − 2L
Dec 17, 2025at DET4 − 1W
Dec 16, 2025at BOS1 − 4L
Dec 14, 2025at PIT5 − 4W
Dec 12, 2025vs SEA5 − 3W
Dec 10, 2025vs FLA3 − 4L
Dec 8, 2025vs LA2 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at CGY0 − 2L
Dec 5, 2025at VAN4 − 1W

COL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Dec 21, 2025at MIN5 − 1W
Dec 19, 2025vs WPG3 − 2W
Dec 16, 2025at SEA5 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025vs NSH4 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs FLA6 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at NSH3 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at PHI3 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025at NYR3 − 2W
Dec 4, 2025at NYI3 − 6L
Dec 2, 2025vs VAN3 − 1W