bayesRatings

Jets at Avalanche

NHL · Friday, Dec 19 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final WPG 2 – COL 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WPG0112
COL2013
Team box
WPG·COL
22
shots
26
1 of 2
power play
0 of 3
50.9
faceoff %
49.1
20
hits
21
15
blocked shots
13
11
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Josh MansonCOL020
Martin NecasCOL104
Mark ScheifeleWPG102
Morgan BarronWPG102
Brent BurnsCOL101
Parker KellyCOL101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Connor HellebuyckWPG2623.885
Scott WedgewoodCOL2220.909

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
WPG +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 2 · WPG 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WPG 33%, COL 67% · Updated Dec 19, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.1
Expected score
COL 3.8 – 2.7 WPG
Expected total
6.5
JetsThe matchupAvalanche
+200Our fair odds−200
2.7Expected goals3.8
+0.12Power rating+0.66
3.0Goals / game4.0
3.0Allowed / game2.3
26.7Shots / game34.8
51.6Faceoff %50.5
23.0Hits / game17.6
15−18Season record24−9
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WPG chance · COL chance
Our model fair33.4%66.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WPGWinnipeg Jets+20033%————
COLColorado Avalanche−20067%————
SpreadCOL by 1.1
WPGWinnipeg Jets+1.1our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.1 expected
Winnipeg Jets by 7 goals: <1%Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: <1%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 1%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 3%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 6%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 6%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 17%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 21%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 17%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 10%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 4%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: <1%
← WPG wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more46%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more34%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more16%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.531%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WPGConnor Hellebuyck G · last 5 starts: .910 save %, 2.36 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .939 save %, 1.72 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WPG·COL
Dec 17, 2025 at STL
last game
Dec 16, 2025 at SEA
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 33+ games
WPG·COL
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
3.0
goals / game
4.0
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.3
15−18
season record
24−9
8−8
home record
13−2
7−10
away record
11−7
L2
streak
W3
3−7
last 10
7−3
26.7
shots / game
34.8
51.6
faceoff %
50.5
23.0
hits / game
17.6
15.0
blocked shots / game
14.1
4.1
takeaways / game
4.7
14.8
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

WPG · COL · 66 days
Winnipeg JetsColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Jan 22, 2025at COLWPG 3 − 2 OT
Jan 11, 2025at WPGWPG 3 − 0
Dec 31, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
Nov 7, 2024at WPGWPG 1 − 0
Apr 30, 2024at WPGCOL 6 − 3post
Apr 28, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 1post
Apr 26, 2024at COLCOL 6 − 2post
Apr 23, 2024at WPGCOL 5 − 2post
Apr 21, 2024at WPGWPG 7 − 6post
Apr 13, 2024at COLWPG 7 − 0

WPG · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Dec 17, 2025at STL0 − 1L
Dec 15, 2025vs OTT2 − 3L
Dec 13, 2025vs WSH5 − 1W
Dec 11, 2025vs BOS3 − 6L
Dec 9, 2025vs DAL3 − 4L
Dec 6, 2025at EDM2 − 6L
Dec 5, 2025vs BUF4 − 1W
Dec 3, 2025at MTL2 − 3L
Dec 1, 2025at BUF1 − 5L
Nov 29, 2025at NSH5 − 2W

COL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Dec 16, 2025at SEA5 − 3W
Dec 13, 2025vs NSH4 − 2W
Dec 11, 2025vs FLA6 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at NSH3 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at PHI3 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025at NYR3 − 2W
Dec 4, 2025at NYI3 − 6L
Dec 2, 2025vs VAN3 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025vs MTL7 − 2W
Nov 28, 2025at MIN2 − 3L