bayesRatings

Predators at Avalanche

NHL · Saturday, Dec 13 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final NSH 2 – COL 4
← NHL / Dec 13, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
NSH1012
COL2114
Team box
NSH·COL
29
shots
41
1 of 3
power play
0 of 4
45.8
faceoff %
54.2
18
hits
16
19
blocked shots
16
8
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nathan MacKinnonCOL113
Samuel GirardCOL021
Valeri NichushkinCOL108
Jonathan MarchessaultNSH104
Victor OlofssonCOL102
Jack DruryCOL102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Justus AnnunenNSH4037.925
Scott WedgewoodCOL2927.931

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
NSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 3 · NSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NSH 25%, COL 75% · Updated Dec 13, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 2.1
Expected score
COL 4.5 – 2.5 NSH
Expected total
7.0
PredatorsThe matchupAvalanche
+306Our fair odds−306
2.5Expected goals4.5
−0.33Power rating+0.63
2.8Goals / game4.0
3.5Allowed / game2.3
27.9Shots / game34.5
53.1Faceoff %50.4
19.4Hits / game17.8
12−18Season record22−9
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NSH chance · COL chance
Our model fair24.7%75.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NSHNashville Predators+30625%————
COLColorado Avalanche−30675%————
SpreadCOL by 2.1
NSHNashville Predators+2.1our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.0
Over7.0our total————
Under7.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 2.1 expected
Nashville Predators by 9 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 8 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 7 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 3%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 3%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 14%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 22%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 8%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 9 goals: <1%
← NSH wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more64%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more51%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more7%
Decided by one goal29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.0 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 16%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 11%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 6%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.557%
Total over 7.538%
Total over 8.528%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
NSHJustus Annunen G · last 5 starts: .850 save %, 3.94 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .926 save %, 1.93 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NSH·COL
Dec 11, 2025 vs STL
last game
Dec 11, 2025 vs FLA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 30+ games
NSH·COL
−0.33
rating (0 = average)
+0.63
2.8
goals / game
4.0
3.5
goals allowed / game
2.3
12−18
season record
22−9
8−10
home record
12−2
4−8
away record
10−7
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
7−3
27.9
shots / game
34.5
53.1
faceoff %
50.4
19.4
hits / game
17.8
11.3
blocked shots / game
14.0
5.1
takeaways / game
4.7
15.6
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

NSH · COL · 60 days
Nashville PredatorsColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 5−5
Dec 9, 2025at NSHNSH 4 − 3 SO
Nov 22, 2025at NSHCOL 3 − 0
Feb 22, 2025at NSHNSH 2 − 1
Dec 14, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
Nov 11, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 2 OT
Nov 2, 2024at NSHNSH 5 − 2
Mar 30, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 4
Mar 2, 2024at NSHNSH 5 − 1
Nov 20, 2023at NSHNSH 4 − 3
Apr 14, 2023at NSHCOL 4 − 3

NSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Dec 11, 2025vs STL7 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Dec 6, 2025at CAR3 − 6L
Dec 4, 2025at FLA2 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025vs CGY5 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L
Nov 28, 2025at CHI4 − 3W
Nov 26, 2025at DET6 − 3W
Nov 24, 2025vs FLA3 − 8L
Nov 22, 2025vs COL0 − 3L

COL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Dec 11, 2025vs FLA6 − 2W
Dec 9, 2025at NSH3 − 4L
Dec 7, 2025at PHI3 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025at NYR3 − 2W
Dec 4, 2025at NYI3 − 6L
Dec 2, 2025vs VAN3 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025vs MTL7 − 2W
Nov 28, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Nov 26, 2025vs SJ6 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at CHI1 − 0W