bayesRatings

Avalanche at Predators

NHL · Tuesday, Dec 9 · 8:30 PM CT · Bridgestone Arena · Final COL 3 – NSH 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
COL201003
NSH201014
Team box
COL·NSH
42
shots
31
1 of 4
power play
1 of 2
50.0
faceoff %
50.0
9
hits
11
7
blocked shots
18
4
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL00—
Scott WedgewoodCOL3128.903
Juuse SarosNSH4239.929

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NSH +3
COL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: NSH 1 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 68%, NSH 32% · Updated Dec 9, 2025

Expected margin
COL by 1.5
Expected score
COL 3.8 – 2.2 NSH
Expected total
6.0
AvalancheThe matchupPredators
−213Our fair odds+213
3.8Expected goals2.2
+0.63Power rating−0.33
4.0Goals / game2.6
2.3Allowed / game3.6
34.0Shots / game27.6
49.8Faceoff %53.4
18.3Hits / game19.9
21−8Season record10−18
8−2Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · NSH chance
Our model fair68.0%32.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−21368%————
NSHNashville Predators+21332%————
SpreadCOL by 1.5
COLColorado Avalanche−1.5our margin————
NSHNashville Predators+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.5 expected
Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 6%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 20%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 14%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 17%Nashville Predators by 1 goal: 19%Nashville Predators by 2 goals: 4%Nashville Predators by 3 goals: 4%Nashville Predators by 4 goals: 1%Nashville Predators by 5 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 6 goals: <1%Nashville Predators by 7 goals: <1%
← COL wins byNSH wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more54%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more40%
Nashville Predators wins by 2 or more10%
Decided by one goal36%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.541%
Total over 7.524%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .942 save %, 1.52 GAAstarted
NSHJuuse Saros G · last 5 starts: .919 save %, 2.47 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·NSH
Dec 7, 2025 at PHI
last game
Dec 6, 2025 at CAR
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 28+ games
COL·NSH
+0.63
rating (0 = average)
−0.33
4.0
goals / game
2.6
2.3
goals allowed / game
3.6
21−8
season record
10−18
11−2
home record
6−10
10−6
away record
4−8
W2
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
5−5
34.0
shots / game
27.6
49.8
faceoff %
53.4
18.3
hits / game
19.9
14.2
blocked shots / game
11.0
4.6
takeaways / game
5.2
15.4
giveaways / game
15.9

Rating Trend

COL · NSH · 56 days
Colorado AvalancheNashville Predators
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NSH 4−6
Nov 22, 2025at NSHCOL 3 − 0
Feb 22, 2025at NSHNSH 2 − 1
Dec 14, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
Nov 11, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 2 OT
Nov 2, 2024at NSHNSH 5 − 2
Mar 30, 2024at COLCOL 7 − 4
Mar 2, 2024at NSHNSH 5 − 1
Nov 20, 2023at NSHNSH 4 − 3
Apr 14, 2023at NSHCOL 4 − 3
Dec 23, 2022at NSHCOL 3 − 2 OT

COL · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Dec 7, 2025at PHI3 − 2W
Dec 6, 2025at NYR3 − 2W
Dec 4, 2025at NYI3 − 6L
Dec 2, 2025vs VAN3 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025vs MTL7 − 2W
Nov 28, 2025at MIN2 − 3L
Nov 26, 2025vs SJ6 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at CHI1 − 0W
Nov 22, 2025at NSH3 − 0W
Nov 20, 2025vs NYR6 − 3W

NSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 6, 2025at CAR3 − 6L
Dec 4, 2025at FLA2 − 1W
Dec 2, 2025vs CGY5 − 1W
Nov 29, 2025vs WPG2 − 5L
Nov 28, 2025at CHI4 − 3W
Nov 26, 2025at DET6 − 3W
Nov 24, 2025vs FLA3 − 8L
Nov 22, 2025vs COL0 − 3L
Nov 16, 2025at PIT0 − 4L
Nov 14, 2025vs PIT2 − 1W