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Avalanche at Capitals

NHL · Sunday, Mar 22 · 11:30 AM CT · Capital One Arena · Final COL 3 – WSH 2
← NHL / Mar 22

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
COL00213
WSH10102
Team box
COL·WSH
24
shots
22
0 of 2
power play
1 of 5
59.6
faceoff %
40.4
15
hits
18
5
blocked shots
14
10
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Martin NecasCOL022
Alex OvechkinWSH103
Brock NelsonCOL102
Gabriel LandeskogCOL102
Justin SourdifWSH102
Nicolas RoyCOL101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL2220.909
Logan ThompsonWSH2421.875

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
COL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: WSH 1 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 57%, WSH 43% · Updated Mar 22

Expected margin
COL by 0.6
Expected score
COL 3.3 – 2.8 WSH
Expected total
6.1
AvalancheThe matchupCapitals
−134Our fair odds+134
3.3Expected goals2.8
+0.52Power rating+0.06
3.7Goals / game3.1
2.5Allowed / game2.9
34.0Shots / game28.7
51.5Faceoff %49.6
17.2Hits / game19.9
45−23Season record35−35
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · WSH chance
Our model fair57.3%42.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−13457%————
WSHWashington Capitals+13443%————
SpreadCOL by 0.6
COLColorado Avalanche−0.6our margin————
WSHWashington Capitals+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 0.6 expected
Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 3%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 8%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 19%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 22%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 8%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 8%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 3%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%
← COL wins byWSH wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more38%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more27%
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLMackenzie Blackwood G · last 5 starts: .867 save %, 2.78 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .932 save %, 1.98 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·WSH
Mar 20 at CHI
last game
Mar 20 vs NJ
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 68+ games
COL·WSH
+0.52
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
3.7
goals / game
3.1
2.5
goals allowed / game
2.9
45−23
season record
35−35
23−11
home record
22−15
22−12
away record
13−20
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
34.0
shots / game
28.7
51.5
faceoff %
49.6
17.2
hits / game
19.9
12.8
blocked shots / game
15.9
4.5
takeaways / game
4.4
15.8
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

COL · WSH · 137 days
Colorado AvalancheWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · WSH 3−6
Jan 19at COLCOL 5 − 2
Nov 21, 2024at WSHCOL 2 − 1
Nov 15, 2024at COLWSH 5 − 2
Feb 13, 2024at WSHCOL 6 − 3
Jan 24, 2024at COLCOL 6 − 2
Jan 24, 2023at COLCOL 3 − 2
Nov 19, 2022at WSHCOL 4 − 0
Apr 18, 2022at COLWSH 3 − 2
Oct 19, 2021at WSHWSH 6 − 3

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 20at CHI4 − 1W
Mar 18vs DAL1 − 2L
Mar 16vs PIT2 − 7L
Mar 14at WPG1 − 3L
Mar 12at SEA5 − 1W
Mar 10vs EDM3 − 4L
Mar 8vs MIN3 − 2W
Mar 6at DAL5 − 4W
Mar 3at ANA5 − 1W
Mar 2at LA4 − 2W

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Mar 20vs NJ2 − 1W
Mar 18vs OTT4 − 1W
Mar 14vs BOS2 − 3L
Mar 12at BUF2 − 1W
Mar 11at PHI1 − 4L
Mar 9vs CGY7 − 3W
Mar 7at BOS1 − 3L
Mar 3vs UTAH2 − 3L
Feb 28at MTL2 − 6L
Feb 27vs VGK3 − 2W