bayesRatings

Stars at Islanders

NHL · Thursday, Mar 26 · 6:00 PM CT · UBS Arena · Final DAL 1 – NYI 2
← NHL / Mar 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
DAL0011
NYI1012
Team box
DAL·NYI
27
shots
25
0 of 2
power play
0 of 3
42.1
faceoff %
57.9
21
hits
15
10
blocked shots
15
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Matthew SchaeferNYI023
Bo HorvatNYI103
Matt DucheneDAL102
Calum RitchieNYI102
Emil HeinemanNYI014
Jamie BennDAL011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jake OettingerDAL2523.920
Ilya SorokinNYI2726.963

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYI +3
DAL +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: NYI 2 · DAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 54%, NYI 46% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DAL 3.1 – 2.6 NYI
Expected total
5.7
StarsThe matchupIslanders
−117Our fair odds+117
3.1Expected goals2.6
+0.31Power rating+0.00
3.4Goals / game2.9
2.8Allowed / game2.9
25.7Shots / game28.1
52.2Faceoff %52.2
19.2Hits / game19.5
43−28Season record40−32
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · NYI chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Stars−11754%————
NYINew York Islanders+11746%————
Spreadabout even
DALDallas Stars−0.4our margin————
NYINew York Islanders+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Dallas Stars by 6 goals: <1%Dallas Stars by 5 goals: 2%Dallas Stars by 4 goals: 7%Dallas Stars by 3 goals: 13%Dallas Stars by 2 goals: 11%Dallas Stars by 1 goal: 19%New York Islanders by 1 goal: 24%New York Islanders by 2 goals: 8%New York Islanders by 3 goals: 8%New York Islanders by 4 goals: 4%New York Islanders by 5 goals: 1%New York Islanders by 6 goals: <1%
← DAL wins byNYI wins by →
Dallas Stars wins by 2 or more35%
Dallas Stars wins by 3 or more24%
New York Islanders wins by 2 or more21%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
DALJake Oettinger G · last 5 starts: .945 save %, 1.55 GAAstarted
NYIIlya Sorokin G · last 5 starts: .911 save %, 2.46 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·NYI
Mar 24 vs NJ
last game
Mar 24 vs CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 71+ games
DAL·NYI
+0.31
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
3.4
goals / game
2.9
2.8
goals allowed / game
2.9
43−28
season record
40−32
22−14
home record
19−14
21−14
away record
21−18
L3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
25.7
shots / game
28.1
52.2
faceoff %
52.2
19.2
hits / game
19.5
15.1
blocked shots / game
14.7
4.7
takeaways / game
4.5
14.5
giveaways / game
14.5

Rating Trend

DAL · NYI · 141 days
Dallas StarsNew York Islanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NYI 4−5
Nov 18, 2025at DALNYI 3 − 2
Feb 23, 2025at NYIDAL 4 − 3
Oct 12, 2024at DALDAL 3 − 0
Feb 26, 2024at DALNYI 3 − 2 OT
Jan 21, 2024at NYINYI 3 − 2 OT
Jan 10, 2023at NYIDAL 2 − 1 SO
Nov 19, 2022at DALDAL 5 − 2
Apr 5, 2022at DALDAL 3 − 2
Mar 19, 2022at NYINYI 4 − 2

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Mar 24vs NJ4 − 6L
Mar 22vs VGK2 − 3L
Mar 21at MIN1 − 2L
Mar 18at COL2 − 1W
Mar 16vs UTAH3 − 6L
Mar 14vs DET3 − 2W
Mar 12vs EDM7 − 2W
Mar 10vs VGK2 − 1W
Mar 8vs CHI4 − 3W
Mar 6vs COL4 − 5L

NYI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 24vs CHI3 − 4L
Mar 22vs CBJ1 − 0W
Mar 21at MTL3 − 7L
Mar 19at OTT2 − 3L
Mar 17at TOR3 − 1W
Mar 14vs CGY3 − 2W
Mar 13vs LA2 − 3L
Mar 10at STL4 − 3W
Mar 7at SJ2 − 1W
Mar 5at LA3 − 5L